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Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Brighton vs Leeds: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

BrightonBrighton1 – 1LeedsLeeds

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brighton (57%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): missed.

Match analysis

Brighton and Leeds met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton. Before kick-off, our model gave Brighton a 57% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Leeds 24%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Brighton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Leeds are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Brighton score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Leeds score 1.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Brighton sit 10th with 3 points from 2 games, Leeds 9th with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Brighton have averaged 2.59 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.55 for Leeds.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Brighton, 1 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 1-0 Brighton (May 17, 2026). Brighton out or doubtful: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, J. Hinshelwood, Y. Minteh and K. Mitoma. Leeds: I. Gruev, M. Joseph and J. Rodon. In double chance terms, "Brighton or draw" stands at 76%, "Leeds or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 81%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

57%
Brighton (Win)
19%
Draw
24%
Leeds (Win)

Double chance

76%
Brighton or draw
43%
Leeds or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Brighton – Leeds. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Brighton 2-1 Leeds8.3%
Brighton 3-1 Leeds6.9%
Brighton 2-2 Leeds6.7%
Brighton 1-1 Leeds6.6%
Brighton 3-2 Leeds5.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.49 expected goals for Brighton and 1.61 for Leeds, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 78% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. Brighton keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Leeds in 8%.

Probability
Brighton expected goals2.49
Leeds expected goals1.61
Both teams to score73%
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals59%
Brighton clean sheet20%
Leeds clean sheet8%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Brighton

DateOpponentScore
Aug 30, 2026Chelsea · Premier League3-4L
Aug 27, 2026Tromso · UEFA Conference League4-0W
Aug 23, 2026Aston Villa · Premier League4-0W
Aug 20, 2026Tromso · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Aug 15, 2026Bologna · Club Friendlies1-0W

Leeds

DateOpponentScore
Aug 30, 2026Brentford · Premier League1-1D
Aug 25, 2026Nottingham Forest · EFL Cup2-0W
Aug 22, 2026Nottingham Forest · Premier League1-0W
Aug 15, 2026FC Augsburg · Club Friendlies4-0W
Aug 12, 2026Manchester United · Club Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Brighton1032
Leeds942

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Leeds 1-0 BrightonPremier League
Nov 1, 2025Brighton 3-0 LeedsPremier League

Out and doubtful

Brighton

  • F. Azeez (out)
  • E. Ferguson (out)
  • J. Hinshelwood (out)
  • Y. Minteh (out)
  • K. Mitoma (out)

Leeds

  • I. Gruev (out)
  • M. Joseph (out)
  • J. Rodon (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Brighton vs Leeds prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Brighton a 57% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Leeds 24%. Brighton are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Brighton vs Leeds?

2-1 (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.6%) and 3-2 (5.5%).

Will both teams score in Brighton vs Leeds?

The probability that both Brighton and Leeds score is 73%. Brighton have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leeds 8%.

How many goals should we expect in Brighton vs Leeds?

The model expects 4.10 goals (2.49 for Brighton, 1.61 for Leeds). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 59%.

When and where is Brighton vs Leeds played?

Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 3. Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton.

What form are Brighton and Leeds in?

Brighton: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Leeds: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Leeds?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Brighton, 1 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 1-0 Brighton (May 17, 2026).

What was the Brighton vs Leeds result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Brighton (57%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): missed.

How is the Brighton vs Leeds prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.49 for Brighton, 1.61 for Leeds) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained