Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Newcastle vs Bournemouth: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Newcastle (47%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Newcastle and Bournemouth met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle. Before kick-off, our model gave Newcastle a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bournemouth 28%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.8%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Newcastle have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Bournemouth have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 15 and conceding 8. Newcastle therefore arrive in far better shape than Bournemouth. On average Newcastle score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Bournemouth score 3.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Newcastle sit 7th with 4 points from 2 games, Bournemouth 14th with 1 points from 2. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Newcastle have averaged 1.15 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.41 for Bournemouth.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Bournemouth and 2 draws. The most recent ended Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth (Apr 18, 2026). Newcastle out or doubtful: D. Burn, Joelinton, W. Osula and V. Livramento. Bournemouth: A. Adli, J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi and V. Milosavljevic. In double chance terms, "Newcastle or draw" stands at 72%, "Bournemouth or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Newcastle – Bournemouth. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 2-0 Bournemouth | 12.6% |
| Newcastle 1-0 Bournemouth | 11.8% |
| Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth | 9.6% |
| Newcastle 3-0 Bournemouth | 9.0% |
| Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.14 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.76 for Bournemouth, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Bournemouth in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Newcastle expected goals | 2.14 |
| Bournemouth expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 47% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Newcastle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 26, 2026 | West Brom · EFL Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Bournemouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa · Club Friendlies | 10-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth | FA Cup |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Newcastle
- D. Burn (out)
- Joelinton (out)
- W. Osula (out)
- V. Livramento (out)
Bournemouth
- A. Adli (out)
- J. Araujo (out)
- E. J. Kroupi (out)
- V. Milosavljevic (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Ipswich 0-2 LiverpoolSep 4, 2026
- Brighton 1-1 LeedsSep 5, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamSep 5, 2026
- Brentford 1-1 SunderlandSep 5, 2026
- Fulham 2-3 Crystal PalaceSep 5, 2026
- Manchester City 1-0 CoventrySep 5, 2026
- Hull City 0-0 Aston VillaSep 5, 2026
- Everton 2-2 Manchester UnitedSep 6, 2026
- Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaSep 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Newcastle a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bournemouth 28%. Newcastle are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
2-0 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.8%), 2-1 (9.6%), 3-0 (9.0%) and 1-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth score is 47%. Newcastle have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bournemouth 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The model expects 2.90 goals (2.14 for Newcastle, 0.76 for Bournemouth). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 3. Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle.
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in?
Newcastle: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Bournemouth: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Bournemouth and 2 draws. The most recent ended Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth (Apr 18, 2026).
What was the Newcastle vs Bournemouth result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Newcastle (47%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.14 for Newcastle, 0.76 for Bournemouth) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Newcastle predictions
- All Bournemouth predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology