Premier League· Kick-off : Monday, August 31, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Arsenal: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Arsenal at 63%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
Match analysis
Aston Villa and Arsenal met on Monday, August 31, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Aston Villa a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal 63%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (17.4%), followed by 0-2 (17.0%) and 0-4 (13.4%).
Aston Villa have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Arsenal therefore arrive in far better shape than Aston Villa. On average Aston Villa score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Arsenal score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Aston Villa sit 17th with 0 points from 1 games, Arsenal 9th with 3 points from 1. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 0.29 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.88 for Arsenal.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 1 for Arsenal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa (Dec 30, 2025). Aston Villa out or doubtful: Joao Gomes, J. Manzambi, A. Onana, O. Watkins and T. Abraham. Arsenal: G. Martinelli, W. Saliba, J. Timber, Bruno Guimaraes and Gabriel Jesus. In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 37%, "Arsenal or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 78%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Arsenal. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (17.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 0-3 Arsenal | 17.4% |
| Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal | 17.0% |
| Aston Villa 0-4 Arsenal | 13.4% |
| Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal | 11.0% |
| Aston Villa 0-5 Arsenal | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.25 expected goals for Aston Villa and 3.08 for Arsenal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 65% and "both teams to score" at 21%. Goals look likely in this one. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Arsenal in 78%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 0.25 |
| Arsenal expected goals | 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 21% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 5% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 78% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Super Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City · FA Community Shield | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Girona · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| Arsenal | 9 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- Joao Gomes (out)
- J. Manzambi (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- O. Watkins (out)
- T. Abraham (out)
Arsenal
- G. Martinelli (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- J. Timber (out)
- Bruno Guimaraes (out)
- Gabriel Jesus (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester CityAug 28, 2026
- Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham ForestAug 29, 2026
- Bournemouth 1-1 EvertonAug 29, 2026
- Coventry 0-1 Hull CityAug 29, 2026
- Tottenham 0-2 NewcastleAug 29, 2026
- Chelsea 4-3 BrightonAug 30, 2026
- Leeds 1-1 BrentfordAug 30, 2026
- Sunderland 1-0 FulhamAug 30, 2026
- Manchester United 5-2 IpswichAug 30, 2026
- Ipswich 0-2 LiverpoolSep 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aston Villa a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal 63%. Arsenal are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
0-3 (17.4%), followed by 0-2 (17.0%), 0-4 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%) and 0-5 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Arsenal score is 21%. Aston Villa have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Arsenal 78%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The model expects 3.33 goals (0.25 for Aston Villa, 3.08 for Arsenal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Arsenal played?
Monday, August 31, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 2. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Arsenal in?
Aston Villa: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Arsenal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Arsenal?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 1 for Arsenal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa (Dec 30, 2025).
What was the Aston Villa vs Arsenal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Arsenal at 63%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
How is the Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.25 for Aston Villa, 3.08 for Arsenal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Arsenal predictions
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- Today’s predictions
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