Premier League· Kick-off : Friday, August 28, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (58%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
Match analysis
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City was played on Friday, August 28, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 2). Venue: Selhurst Park, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Crystal Palace a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Manchester City 58%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (7.6%), ahead of 1-4 (6.9%) and 0-3 (6.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Manchester City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Manchester City. On average Crystal Palace score 1.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Manchester City score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Crystal Palace sit 17th with 0 points from 1 games, Manchester City 7th with 3 points from 1. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Crystal Palace have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.25 for Manchester City.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace (May 13, 2026). Crystal Palace out or doubtful: C. Riad and I. Sarr. Manchester City: J. Doku, Savinho, R. McAidoo and M. Nunes. In double chance terms, "Crystal Palace or draw" stands at 42%, "Manchester City or draw" at 81% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Crystal Palace – Manchester City. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1-3 Manchester City | 7.6% |
| Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City | 6.9% |
| Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City | 6.3% |
| Crystal Palace 1-2 Manchester City | 6.3% |
| Crystal Palace 0-4 Manchester City | 5.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.85 goals in total (1.21 for Crystal Palace, 3.64 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 86% probability and both teams to score 68%. Everything points to an open game. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, Manchester City in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace expected goals | 1.21 |
| Manchester City expected goals | 3.64 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 3% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Crystal Palace
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fulham · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bromley · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Swindon Town · Club Friendlies | 5-1 | W |
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal · FA Community Shield | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| Manchester City | 7 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Crystal Palace
- C. Riad (out)
- I. Sarr (out)
Manchester City
- J. Doku (out)
- Savinho (out)
- R. McAidoo (out)
- M. Nunes (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Fulham 2-3 ChelseaAug 24, 2026
- Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham ForestAug 29, 2026
- Bournemouth 1-1 EvertonAug 29, 2026
- Coventry 0-1 Hull CityAug 29, 2026
- Tottenham 0-2 NewcastleAug 29, 2026
- Chelsea 4-3 BrightonAug 30, 2026
- Leeds 1-1 BrentfordAug 30, 2026
- Sunderland 1-0 FulhamAug 30, 2026
- Manchester United 5-2 IpswichAug 30, 2026
- Aston Villa 0-1 ArsenalAug 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Crystal Palace a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Manchester City 58%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
1-3 (7.6%), followed by 1-4 (6.9%), 0-3 (6.3%), 1-2 (6.3%) and 0-4 (5.7%).
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
The probability that both Crystal Palace and Manchester City score is 68%. Crystal Palace have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
The model expects 4.85 goals (1.21 for Crystal Palace, 3.64 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is Crystal Palace vs Manchester City played?
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 2. Venue: Selhurst Park, London.
What form are Crystal Palace and Manchester City in?
Crystal Palace: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded). Manchester City: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Manchester City?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace (May 13, 2026).
What was the Crystal Palace vs Manchester City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (58%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 1-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
How is the Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Crystal Palace, 3.64 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Crystal Palace predictions
- All Manchester City predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology