Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Manchester City vs Bournemouth was played on Sunday, August 23, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 1). Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Before kick-off, our model gave Manchester City a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bournemouth 15%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Manchester City have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 22 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Bournemouth. On average Manchester City score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Bournemouth score 4.40 and concede 1.60.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester City, 0 for Bournemouth and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City (May 19, 2026). Manchester City out or doubtful: J. Doku, R. McAidoo, Savinho and M. Nunes. Bournemouth: A. Adli, J. Araujo, R. Christie, E. J. Kroupi and V. Milosavljevic. In double chance terms, "Manchester City or draw" stands at 85%, "Bournemouth or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 81%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester City – Bournemouth. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester City 1-1 Bournemouth | 12.5% |
| Manchester City 1-0 Bournemouth | 11.7% |
| Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth | 9.1% |
| Manchester City 2-0 Bournemouth | 8.6% |
| Manchester City 0-1 Bournemouth | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.52 goals in total (1.46 for Manchester City, 1.06 for Bournemouth): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 50%. Manchester City keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Bournemouth in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester City expected goals | 1.46 |
| Bournemouth expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 35% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal · FA Community Shield | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 24, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
Bournemouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa · Club Friendlies | 10-1 | W |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC St. Pauli · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Bournemouth | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester City
- J. Doku (out)
- R. McAidoo (out)
- Savinho (out)
- M. Nunes (out)
Bournemouth
- A. Adli (out)
- J. Araujo (out)
- R. Christie (out)
- E. J. Kroupi (out)
- V. Milosavljevic (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal 3-0 CoventryAug 21, 2026
- Hull City 2-0 Manchester UnitedAug 22, 2026
- Everton 2-0 Crystal PalaceAug 22, 2026
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 LeedsAug 22, 2026
- Ipswich 2-1 SunderlandAug 22, 2026
- Brentford 3-0 TottenhamAug 22, 2026
- Brighton 4-0 Aston VillaAug 23, 2026
- Newcastle 2-2 LiverpoolAug 23, 2026
- Fulham 2-3 ChelseaAug 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Manchester City a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bournemouth 15%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
The probability that both Manchester City and Bournemouth score is 50%. Manchester City have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bournemouth 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
The model expects 2.52 goals (1.46 for Manchester City, 1.06 for Bournemouth). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Manchester City vs Bournemouth played?
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 1. Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester.
What form are Manchester City and Bournemouth in?
Manchester City: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Bournemouth: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (22 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Bournemouth?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester City, 0 for Bournemouth and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City (May 19, 2026).
What was the Manchester City vs Bournemouth result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (66%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for Manchester City, 1.06 for Bournemouth) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester City predictions
- All Bournemouth predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology