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Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest0 – 1LeedsLeeds

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nottingham Forest (47%), while victory for Leeds was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Nottingham Forest and Leeds met on Saturday, August 22, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: City Ground, Nottingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Nottingham Forest a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Leeds 27%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Nottingham Forest have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Leeds have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Leeds therefore arrive in far better shape than Nottingham Forest. On average Nottingham Forest score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Leeds score 1.60 and concede 0.80.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Nottingham Forest, 1 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Feb 6, 2026). Nottingham Forest out or doubtful: N. Savona and R. Yates. Leeds: W. Gnonto, G. Gudmundsson and M. Joseph. In double chance terms, "Nottingham Forest or draw" stands at 73%, "Leeds or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

47%
Nottingham Forest (Win)
26%
Draw
27%
Leeds (Win)

Double chance

73%
Nottingham Forest or draw
53%
Leeds or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Nottingham Forest – Leeds. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds12.2%
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds11.1%
Nottingham Forest 2-1 Leeds9.3%
Nottingham Forest 2-0 Leeds8.4%
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.52 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.10 for Leeds, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Leeds in 22%.

Probability
Nottingham Forest expected goals1.52
Leeds expected goals1.10
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Nottingham Forest clean sheet33%
Leeds clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Nottingham Forest

DateOpponentScore
Aug 16, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Club Friendlies2-0W
Aug 12, 2026Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 8, 2026Barcelona · Club Friendlies0-1L
Aug 8, 2026Udinese · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jul 31, 2026Sporting CP · Club Friendlies1-4L

Leeds

DateOpponentScore
Aug 15, 2026FC Augsburg · Club Friendlies4-0W
Aug 12, 2026Manchester United · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 8, 2026RB Leipzig · Club Friendlies2-0W
May 24, 2026West Ham · Premier League0-3L
May 17, 2026Brighton · Premier League1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Nottingham Forest1800
Leeds1700

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 6, 2026Leeds 3-1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Nov 9, 2025Nottingham Forest 3-1 LeedsPremier League

Out and doubtful

Nottingham Forest

  • N. Savona (out)
  • R. Yates (out)

Leeds

  • W. Gnonto (out)
  • G. Gudmundsson (out)
  • M. Joseph (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Nottingham Forest vs Leeds prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Nottingham Forest a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Leeds 27%. Nottingham Forest are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?

1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 0-1 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?

The probability that both Nottingham Forest and Leeds score is 52%. Nottingham Forest have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leeds 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.52 for Nottingham Forest, 1.10 for Leeds). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds played?

Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 1. Venue: City Ground, Nottingham.

What form are Nottingham Forest and Leeds in?

Nottingham Forest: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Leeds: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Nottingham Forest, 1 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Feb 6, 2026).

What was the Nottingham Forest vs Leeds result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Nottingham Forest (47%), while victory for Leeds was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Nottingham Forest vs Leeds prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for Nottingham Forest, 1.10 for Leeds) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained