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Premier LeaguePremier League· Kick-off : Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Newcastle vs Liverpool: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

NewcastleNewcastle2 – 2LiverpoolLiverpool

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Liverpool (50%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Newcastle vs Liverpool was played on Sunday, August 23, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 1). Venue: St James' Park, Newcastle. Before kick-off, our model gave Newcastle a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Liverpool 50%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.9%), ahead of 0-1 (11.3%) and 1-2 (9.5%).

Newcastle have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Liverpool have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Newcastle score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Liverpool score 1.20 and concede 1.80.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Newcastle, 2 for Liverpool and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle (Jan 31, 2026). Newcastle out or doubtful: Joelinton, D. Burn, V. Livramento and L. Miley. Liverpool: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike, J. Gomez and G. Leoni. In double chance terms, "Newcastle or draw" stands at 50%, "Liverpool or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

25%
Newcastle (Win)
25%
Draw
50%
Liverpool (Win)

Double chance

50%
Newcastle or draw
75%
Liverpool or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Newcastle – Liverpool. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Newcastle 1-1 Liverpool11.9%
Newcastle 0-1 Liverpool11.3%
Newcastle 1-2 Liverpool9.5%
Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool9.0%
Newcastle 1-0 Liverpool7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.05 for Newcastle, 1.59 for Liverpool): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Liverpool in 35%.

Probability
Newcastle expected goals1.05
Liverpool expected goals1.59
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Newcastle clean sheet20%
Liverpool clean sheet35%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Newcastle

DateOpponentScore
Aug 16, 2026Strasbourg · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 15, 2026Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 12, 2026Everton · Club Friendlies1-3L
Aug 8, 2026Valencia · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 29, 2026Bristol City · Club Friendlies1-4L

Liverpool

DateOpponentScore
Aug 16, 2026Como · Club Friendlies0-0D
Aug 9, 2026Monaco · Club Friendlies2-3L
May 24, 2026Brentford · Premier League1-1D
May 15, 2026Aston Villa · Premier League2-4L
May 9, 2026Chelsea · Premier League1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Newcastle1200
Liverpool1000

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 31, 2026Liverpool 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
Aug 25, 2025Newcastle 2-3 LiverpoolPremier League

Out and doubtful

Newcastle

  • Joelinton (out)
  • D. Burn (out)
  • V. Livramento (out)
  • L. Miley (out)

Liverpool

  • C. Bradley (out)
  • H. Ekitike (out)
  • J. Gomez (out)
  • G. Leoni (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Newcastle a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Liverpool 50%. Liverpool are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Newcastle vs Liverpool?

1-1 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.3%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.0%) and 1-0 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?

The probability that both Newcastle and Liverpool score is 52%. Newcastle have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Liverpool 35%.

How many goals should we expect in Newcastle vs Liverpool?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.05 for Newcastle, 1.59 for Liverpool). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Newcastle vs Liverpool played?

Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 1. Venue: St James' Park, Newcastle.

What form are Newcastle and Liverpool in?

Newcastle: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Liverpool: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Newcastle, 2 for Liverpool and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle (Jan 31, 2026).

What was the Newcastle vs Liverpool result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Liverpool (50%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.05 for Newcastle, 1.59 for Liverpool) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained