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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

Alianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar2 – 2Águilas DoradasÁguilas Doradas

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Águilas Doradas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alianza Valledupar (44%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar. Before kick-off, our model gave Alianza Valledupar a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Águilas Doradas 30%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Valledupar have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Águilas Doradas have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Alianza Valledupar therefore arrive in far better shape than Águilas Doradas. On average Alianza Valledupar score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Águilas Doradas score 0.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Alianza Valledupar sit 16th with 11 points from 12 games, Águilas Doradas 11th with 14 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Alianza Valledupar, 2 for Águilas Doradas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Águilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza Valledupar (Mar 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Alianza Valledupar or draw" stands at 70%, "Águilas Doradas or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Alianza Valledupar are tipped by our AI model in this Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas (44%). In the table, Alianza Valledupar (16th, 11 pts) host Águilas Doradas (11th, 14 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

44%
Alianza Valledupar (Win)
26%
Draw
30%
Águilas Doradas (Win)

Double chance

70%
Alianza Valledupar or draw
56%
Águilas Doradas or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Alianza Valledupar – Águilas Doradas. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Alianza Valledupar 1-1 Águilas Doradas12.4%
Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Águilas Doradas10.8%
Alianza Valledupar 2-1 Águilas Doradas9.0%
Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Águilas Doradas8.5%
Alianza Valledupar 2-0 Águilas Doradas7.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.45 expected goals for Alianza Valledupar and 1.15 for Águilas Doradas, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Alianza Valledupar keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Águilas Doradas in 24%.

Probability
Alianza Valledupar expected goals1.45
Águilas Doradas expected goals1.15
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet32%
Águilas Doradas clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Alianza Valledupar

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A1-3L
Sep 27, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 19, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A1-4L
Sep 16, 2026Chico · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Junior · Colombian Primera A1-0W

Águilas Doradas

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-0W
Sep 28, 2026Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A0-2L
Sep 24, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Sep 18, 2026Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 13, 2026Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Alianza Valledupar161112
Águilas Doradas111411

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 27, 2026Águilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Oct 18, 2025Águilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Jun 4, 2025Alianza Valledupar 4-0 Águilas DoradasCopa Colombia
Apr 26, 2025Alianza Valledupar 0-0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Nov 6, 2024Alianza Valledupar 3-0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A

Out and doubtful

Alianza Valledupar

No absences reported.

Águilas Doradas

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Alianza Valledupar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Alba5/5
  • J. Castillo5/5
  • J. Figueroa5/5
  • J. Viveros5/5
  • C. Vergara4/5
  • J. Lasso4/5
  • D. Quinones3/5
  • E. Beltran3/5
  • F. Pardo3/5
  • J. Munoz3/5
  • D. Quiñónes2/5

Águilas Doradas

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Mosquera5/5
  • A. Ricaurte5/5
  • F. Lozano5/5
  • J. Mena5/5
  • J. Ontaneda5/5
  • J. Soto5/5
  • I. Rojas3/5
  • A. Vásquez2/5
  • E. Arizalas2/5
  • E. Arízalas2/5
  • F. Suárez2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Alianza Valledupar a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Águilas Doradas 30%. Alianza Valledupar are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas?

1-1 (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.8%).

Will both teams score in Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas?

The probability that both Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas score is 52%. Alianza Valledupar have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Águilas Doradas 24%.

How many goals should we expect in Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas?

The model expects 2.60 goals (1.45 for Alianza Valledupar, 1.15 for Águilas Doradas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar.

What form are Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas in?

Alianza Valledupar: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Águilas Doradas: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Alianza Valledupar, 2 for Águilas Doradas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Águilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza Valledupar (Mar 27, 2026).

What was the Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Águilas Doradas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alianza Valledupar (44%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.45 for Alianza Valledupar, 1.15 for Águilas Doradas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained