Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 22:05 (UK time)
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Jaguares 3-2 Deportes Tolima. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportes Tolima (45%), while victory for Jaguares was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria. Before kick-off, our model gave Jaguares a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportes Tolima 45%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Jaguares have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 11. Deportes Tolima have not won any of their last 5 matches (4 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Jaguares score 1.40 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Deportes Tolima score 0.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Jaguares sit 20th with 7 points from 11 games, Deportes Tolima 8th with 20 points from 13. 12 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Jaguares, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportes Tolima 3-1 Jaguares (Mar 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "Jaguares or draw" stands at 55%, "Deportes Tolima or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs Deportes Tolima to edge Jaguares (45% probability). In the table, Jaguares (20th, 7 pts) host Deportes Tolima (8th, 20 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Jaguares – Deportes Tolima. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaguares 1-1 Deportes Tolima | 12.3% |
| Jaguares 0-1 Deportes Tolima | 11.0% |
| Jaguares 1-2 Deportes Tolima | 9.1% |
| Jaguares 1-0 Deportes Tolima | 8.3% |
| Jaguares 0-2 Deportes Tolima | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.12 expected goals for Jaguares and 1.48 for Deportes Tolima, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Jaguares keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Deportes Tolima in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Jaguares expected goals | 1.12 |
| Deportes Tolima expected goals | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Jaguares clean sheet | 23% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Jaguares
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
Deportes Tolima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 20 | 7 | 11 |
| Deportes Tolima | 8 | 20 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 3-1 Jaguares | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Jaguares
No absences reported.
Deportes Tolima
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Jaguares
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andrés Rentería3/5
- Carlos Henao3/5
- Rafael Bustamante3/5
- Royscer Colpa3/5
- A. Renteria2/5
- C. Henao2/5
- Diego Martínez2/5
- J. Franco2/5
- J. Malagon2/5
- Johan Beltrán2/5
- Johar Mejía2/5
Deportes Tolima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Neto Volpi5/5
- Anderson Angulo3/5
- Edwar López3/5
- Ever Valencia3/5
- Homer Martinez3/5
- Jan Ángulo3/5
- Junior Hernández3/5
- A. Angulo2/5
- Adrián Parra2/5
- B. Rovira2/5
- Cristian Arrieta2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes TolimaOct 9, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 1-1 MillonariosOct 9, 2026
- Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Águilas DoradasOct 10, 2026
- Once Caldas 1-0 LlanerosOct 10, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 0-0 Deportivo CaliOct 10, 2026
- Junior 2-2 Internacional de BogotaOct 11, 2026
- Chico 0-1 CucutaOct 12, 2026
- America de Cali 1-2 Independiente MedellinOct 12, 2026
- Bucaramanga 1-1 Águilas DoradasOct 14, 2026
- Millonarios – Once CaldasOct 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Jaguares a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportes Tolima 45%. Deportes Tolima are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima?
1-1 (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%) and 0-2 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima?
The probability that both Jaguares and Deportes Tolima score is 52%. Jaguares have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportes Tolima 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.60 goals (1.12 for Jaguares, 1.48 for Deportes Tolima). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 22:05 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria.
What form are Jaguares and Deportes Tolima in?
Jaguares: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded). Deportes Tolima: 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Jaguares and Deportes Tolima?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Jaguares, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportes Tolima 3-1 Jaguares (Mar 28, 2026).
What was the Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Jaguares 3-2 Deportes Tolima. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportes Tolima (45%), while victory for Jaguares was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.12 for Jaguares, 1.48 for Deportes Tolima) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Jaguares predictions
- All Deportes Tolima predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology