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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 02:15 (UK time)

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

America de CaliAmerica de Cali1 – 2Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: America de Cali 1-2 Independiente Medellin. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for America de Cali (64%), while victory for Independiente Medellin was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

Match analysis

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin was played on Monday, October 12, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de Cali. Before kick-off, our model gave America de Cali a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente Medellin 15%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.7%) and 1-1 (9.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, America de Cali have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Independiente Medellin have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with America de Cali. On average America de Cali score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Independiente Medellin score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, America de Cali sit 1st with 27 points from 12 games, Independiente Medellin 7th with 20 points from 12. 6 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for America de Cali, 1 for Independiente Medellin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-1 America de Cali (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "America de Cali or draw" stands at 85%, "Independiente Medellin or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 79%.

In short : America de Cali are tipped by our AI model in this America de Cali v Independiente Medellin (64%). In the table, America de Cali (1st, 27 pts) host Independiente Medellin (7th, 20 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

64%
America de Cali (Win)
21%
Draw
15%
Independiente Medellin (Win)

Double chance

85%
America de Cali or draw
36%
Independiente Medellin or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as America de Cali – Independiente Medellin. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
America de Cali 1-0 Independiente Medellin11.8%
America de Cali 2-0 Independiente Medellin11.7%
America de Cali 1-1 Independiente Medellin9.9%
America de Cali 2-1 Independiente Medellin9.8%
America de Cali 3-0 Independiente Medellin7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.82 goals in total (1.98 for America de Cali, 0.84 for Independiente Medellin): over 2.5 goals has a 54% probability and both teams to score 49%. America de Cali keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Independiente Medellin in 14%.

Probability
America de Cali expected goals1.98
Independiente Medellin expected goals0.84
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
America de Cali clean sheet43%
Independiente Medellin clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

America de Cali

DateOpponentScore
Oct 5, 2026Llaneros · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 24, 2026Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 21, 2026Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A1-1D
Sep 15, 2026Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Sep 10, 2026Deportivo Pereira · Copa Colombia4-1W

Independiente Medellin

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A0-1L
Sep 30, 2026Millonarios · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 27, 2026Junior · Colombian Primera A0-2L
Sep 23, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 18, 2026Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
America de Cali12712
Independiente Medellin72012

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 31, 2026Independiente Medellin 2-1 America de CaliColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

America de Cali

No absences reported.

Independiente Medellin

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

America de Cali

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Dany Rosero3/5
  • Josen Escobar3/5
  • Rafael Carrascal3/5
  • Tomás Ángel3/5
  • Yeison Guzmán3/5
  • C. Tovar2/5
  • D. Rosero2/5
  • J. Escobar2/5
  • J. Murillo2/5
  • Jean2/5
  • Jean Fernandes2/5

Independiente Medellin

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Martegani3/5
  • D. Moreno3/5
  • A. Simarra2/5
  • Agustín Martegani2/5
  • Alfonso Simarra2/5
  • Didier Moreno2/5
  • E. Chaux2/5
  • E. Mena Perea2/5
  • Eder Chaux2/5
  • Esneyder Mena2/5
  • H. Palacios2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave America de Cali a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente Medellin 15%. America de Cali are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

The probability that both America de Cali and Independiente Medellin score is 49%. America de Cali have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente Medellin 14%.

How many goals should we expect in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.82 goals (1.98 for America de Cali, 0.84 for Independiente Medellin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin played?

Monday, October 12, 2026 at 02:15 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de Cali.

What form are America de Cali and Independiente Medellin in?

America de Cali: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Independiente Medellin: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between America de Cali and Independiente Medellin?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for America de Cali, 1 for Independiente Medellin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-1 America de Cali (Mar 31, 2026).

What was the America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: America de Cali 1-2 Independiente Medellin. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for America de Cali (64%), while victory for Independiente Medellin was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.

How is the America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for America de Cali, 0.84 for Independiente Medellin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained