Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Uruguayan Primera División: the Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional match is scheduled on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo. Club Nacional start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; Cerro Largo are given 25% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.3%) and 1-2 (9.5%).
Cerro Largo have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Club Nacional are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 7. Club Nacional therefore arrive in far better shape than Cerro Largo. On average Cerro Largo score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Club Nacional score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Cerro Largo sit 12th with 5 points from 7 games, Club Nacional 8th with 11 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro Largo, 1 for Club Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Club Nacional 3-0 Cerro Largo (Mar 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cerro Largo or draw" stands at 50%, "Club Nacional or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Club Nacional are favourites for this Cerro Largo v Club Nacional, with a 50% win probability from our model. In the table, Cerro Largo (12th, 5 pts) host Club Nacional (8th, 11 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cerro Largo – Club Nacional. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cerro Largo 1-1 Club Nacional | 11.9% |
| Cerro Largo 0-1 Club Nacional | 11.3% |
| Cerro Largo 1-2 Club Nacional | 9.5% |
| Cerro Largo 0-2 Club Nacional | 9.0% |
| Cerro Largo 1-0 Club Nacional | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.05 expected goals for Cerro Largo and 1.59 for Club Nacional, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Cerro Largo keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Club Nacional in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cerro Largo expected goals | 1.05 |
| Club Nacional expected goals | 1.59 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Cerro Largo clean sheet | 20% |
| Club Nacional clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cerro Largo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
Club Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Progreso · Copa Uruguay | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | CA River Plate · Copa Uruguay | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| Club Nacional | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Club Nacional 3-0 Cerro Largo | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Cerro Largo
No absences reported.
Club Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cerro Largo
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hernandez4/4
- M. Garcia4/4
- P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda4/4
- S. Franca4/4
- S. Marcel4/4
- A. de Luca3/4
- A. Pandiani3/4
- A. Piegas3/4
- D. Daguerre3/4
- S. Assis3/4
- A. Segovia2/4
Club Nacional
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Rodriguez4/3
- F. Calvo3/3
- G. N. Martirena Torres3/3
- L. Boggio3/3
- L. Mejia3/3
- M. Silvera3/3
- C. Candido2/3
- E. Ancheta2/3
- R. Botta2/3
- T. Viera2/3
- A. Rogel1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Progreso – Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Penarol – Boston RiverSep 26, 2026
- Atletico Torque – Deportivo MaldonadoSep 27, 2026
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Juventud – CerroSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting – DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional prediction?
Our AI gives Cerro Largo a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Club Nacional 50%. Club Nacional are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional?
1-1 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.3%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.0%) and 1-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional?
The probability that both Cerro Largo and Club Nacional score is 52%. Cerro Largo have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Club Nacional 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.05 for Cerro Largo, 1.59 for Club Nacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo.
What form are Cerro Largo and Club Nacional in?
Cerro Largo: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). Club Nacional: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro Largo and Club Nacional?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro Largo, 1 for Club Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Club Nacional 3-0 Cerro Largo (Mar 24, 2026).
How is the Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.05 for Cerro Largo, 1.59 for Club Nacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cerro Largo predictions
- All Club Nacional predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology