Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Atletico Torque take on Deportivo Maldonado on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. Our model makes Atletico Torque clear favourites: a 63% chance of winning, against 21% for the draw and 16% for Deportivo Maldonado. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.6%) and 1-1 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Torque have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Maldonado have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Torque score 2.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Deportivo Maldonado score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Atletico Torque sit 1st with 18 points from 6 games, Deportivo Maldonado 7th with 11 points from 7. 6 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Torque, 2 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Torque 2-4 Deportivo Maldonado (Jun 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Torque or draw" stands at 84%, "Deportivo Maldonado or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Atletico Torque are favourites for this Atletico Torque v Deportivo Maldonado, with a 63% win probability from our model. In the table, Atletico Torque (1st, 18 pts) host Deportivo Maldonado (7th, 11 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Torque – Deportivo Maldonado. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado | 11.8% |
| Atletico Torque 2-0 Deportivo Maldonado | 11.6% |
| Atletico Torque 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado | 10.0% |
| Atletico Torque 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado | 9.8% |
| Atletico Torque 3-0 Deportivo Maldonado | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.96 expected goals for Atletico Torque and 0.85 for Deportivo Maldonado, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Atletico Torque keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Deportivo Maldonado in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque expected goals | 1.96 |
| Deportivo Maldonado expected goals | 0.85 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Atletico Torque clean sheet | 43% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Torque
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Atenas · Copa Uruguay | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Cienciano · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Cienciano · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
Deportivo Maldonado
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Cerro · Copa Uruguay | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Wanderers · Copa Uruguay | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 1 | 18 | 6 |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Atletico Torque 2-4 Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Atletico Torque | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Torque
No absences reported.
Deportivo Maldonado
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Torque
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Pizzichillo3/4
- F. Silvera3/4
- F. Torgnascioli3/4
- G. Kagelmacher3/4
- G. Montes3/4
- K. Silva3/4
- B. Gutierrez2/4
- D. Guzman2/4
- E. Agüero2/4
- E. Obregón2/4
- N. Da Silva2/4
Deportivo Maldonado
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tabo3/3
- F. Tealde3/3
- G. Larrazabal3/3
- J. M. Ginzo3/3
- J. Ramos3/3
- M. Gonzalez3/3
- R. Cesar3/3
- S. Cartagena3/3
- S. Ramirez3/3
- D. Segovia2/3
- H. Menosse2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Progreso – Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Cerro Largo – Club NacionalSep 26, 2026
- Penarol – Boston RiverSep 26, 2026
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Juventud – CerroSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting – DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Torque a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deportivo Maldonado 16%. Atletico Torque are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The probability that both Atletico Torque and Deportivo Maldonado score is 49%. Atletico Torque have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Maldonado 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model expects 2.81 goals (1.96 for Atletico Torque, 0.85 for Deportivo Maldonado). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.
What form are Atletico Torque and Deportivo Maldonado in?
Atletico Torque: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 7 conceded). Deportivo Maldonado: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Torque and Deportivo Maldonado?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Torque, 2 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Torque 2-4 Deportivo Maldonado (Jun 6, 2026).
How is the Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.96 for Atletico Torque, 0.85 for Deportivo Maldonado) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Torque predictions
- All Deportivo Maldonado predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology