Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Juventud vs Cerro: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Juventud 0-0 Cerro. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventud (54%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
Match analysis
Juventud and Cerro met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras. Before kick-off, our model gave Juventud a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cerro 19%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.0%) and 2-0 (11.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Juventud have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Cerro have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Juventud score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Cerro score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Juventud sit 7th with 12 points from 7 games, Cerro 6th with 13 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Juventud (Mar 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Juventud or draw" stands at 81%, "Cerro or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Juventud are tipped by our AI model in this Juventud v Cerro (54%). In the table, Juventud (7th, 12 pts) host Cerro (6th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Juventud – Cerro. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Juventud 1-0 Cerro | 16.4% |
| Juventud 1-1 Cerro | 12.0% |
| Juventud 2-0 Cerro | 11.8% |
| Juventud 0-0 Cerro | 11.4% |
| Juventud 2-1 Cerro | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.44 expected goals for Juventud and 0.73 for Cerro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 37% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Juventud keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Cerro in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Juventud expected goals | 1.44 |
| Cerro expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Juventud clean sheet | 48% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Juventud
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Copa Uruguay | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Central Espanol · Copa Uruguay | 0-3 | L |
Cerro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| Cerro | 6 | 13 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Cerro 1-0 Juventud | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Juventud
No absences reported.
Cerro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Juventud
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cruz3/3
- E. Cecchini3/3
- F. Barrandeguy3/3
- G. Pereiro3/3
- L. Roldan3/3
- P. Pernicone3/3
- S. Sosa3/3
- B. Larregui2/3
- E. Mas2/3
- K. Rolon2/3
- R. Peralta2/3
Cerro
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Macelli3/3
- B. Aleman3/3
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- J. Amaro3/3
- J. Guasone3/3
- Leonardo Pais3/3
- N. Arena3/3
- Y. Irrazabal3/3
- A. Cambon2/3
- C. Barros2/3
- D. Suarez2/3
Other matches in this competition
- Progreso 2-1 Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Cerro Largo 0-2 Club NacionalSep 26, 2026
- Penarol 2-1 Boston RiverSep 26, 2026
- Atletico Torque 0-2 Deportivo MaldonadoSep 27, 2026
- Central Espanol 1-2 Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting 1-0 DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers 2-1 Albion FCSep 29, 2026
- Atletico Torque 1-1 PenarolOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Juventud vs Cerro prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Juventud a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cerro 19%. Juventud are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Juventud vs Cerro?
1-0 (16.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Juventud vs Cerro?
The probability that both Juventud and Cerro score is 40%. Juventud have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Juventud vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.17 goals (1.44 for Juventud, 0.73 for Cerro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Juventud vs Cerro played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras.
What form are Juventud and Cerro in?
Juventud: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Cerro: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Juventud and Cerro?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Juventud (Mar 25, 2026).
What was the Juventud vs Cerro result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Juventud 0-0 Cerro. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventud (54%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
How is the Juventud vs Cerro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Juventud, 0.73 for Cerro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Juventud predictions
- All Cerro predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology