Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Juventud vs Cerro prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Juventud take on Cerro on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras. Juventud start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; Cerro are given 25% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Juventud have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Cerro have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Juventud score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Cerro score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Juventud sit 5th with 12 points from 7 games, Cerro 3rd with 13 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Juventud (Mar 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Juventud or draw" stands at 75%, "Cerro or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Juventud are tipped by our AI model in this Juventud v Cerro (50%). In the table, Juventud (5th, 12 pts) host Cerro (3rd, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Juventud – Cerro. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Juventud 1-1 Cerro | 11.9% |
| Juventud 1-0 Cerro | 11.3% |
| Juventud 2-1 Cerro | 9.5% |
| Juventud 2-0 Cerro | 9.0% |
| Juventud 0-1 Cerro | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.59 expected goals for Juventud and 1.05 for Cerro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Juventud keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Cerro in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Juventud expected goals | 1.59 |
| Cerro expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Juventud clean sheet | 35% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Juventud
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Copa Uruguay | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Central Espanol · Copa Uruguay | 0-3 | L |
Cerro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Cerro | 3 | 13 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Cerro 1-0 Juventud | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Juventud
No absences reported.
Cerro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Juventud
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cruz3/3
- E. Cecchini3/3
- F. Barrandeguy3/3
- G. Pereiro3/3
- L. Roldan3/3
- P. Pernicone3/3
- S. Sosa3/3
- B. Larregui2/3
- E. Mas2/3
- K. Rolon2/3
- R. Peralta2/3
Cerro
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Macelli3/3
- B. Aleman3/3
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- J. Amaro3/3
- J. Guasone3/3
- Leonardo Pais3/3
- N. Arena3/3
- Y. Irrazabal3/3
- A. Cambon2/3
- C. Barros2/3
- D. Suarez2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Progreso – Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Cerro Largo – Club NacionalSep 26, 2026
- Penarol – Boston RiverSep 26, 2026
- Atletico Torque – Deportivo MaldonadoSep 27, 2026
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting – DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Juventud vs Cerro prediction?
Our AI gives Juventud a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro 25%. Juventud are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Juventud vs Cerro?
1-1 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Juventud vs Cerro?
The probability that both Juventud and Cerro score is 52%. Juventud have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Juventud vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.59 for Juventud, 1.05 for Cerro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Juventud vs Cerro played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras.
What form are Juventud and Cerro in?
Juventud: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Cerro: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Juventud and Cerro?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro 1-0 Juventud (Mar 25, 2026).
How is the Juventud vs Cerro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Juventud, 1.05 for Cerro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Juventud predictions
- All Cerro predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology