Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Uruguayan Primera División: the Defensor Sporting vs Danubio match is scheduled on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. The edge goes to Defensor Sporting (53%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Danubio win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.6%).
Defensor Sporting have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Danubio have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Defensor Sporting score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Danubio score 0.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Defensor Sporting sit 13th with 5 points from 7 games, Danubio 15th with 4 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Defensor Sporting, 0 for Danubio and 1 draw. The most recent ended Danubio 0-0 Defensor Sporting (Mar 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Defensor Sporting or draw" stands at 77%, "Danubio or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Our model backs Defensor Sporting to edge Danubio (53% probability). In the table, Defensor Sporting (13th, 5 pts) host Danubio (15th, 4 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Defensor Sporting – Danubio. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio | 11.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 1-1 Danubio | 11.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 2-0 Danubio | 9.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 2-1 Danubio | 9.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 0-0 Danubio | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.66 goals in total (1.66 for Defensor Sporting, 1.00 for Danubio): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Defensor Sporting keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Danubio in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting expected goals | 1.66 |
| Danubio expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Defensor Sporting clean sheet | 37% |
| Danubio clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Defensor Sporting
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
Danubio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Penarol · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 13 | 5 | 7 |
| Danubio | 15 | 4 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Danubio 0-0 Defensor Sporting | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Defensor Sporting
No absences reported.
Danubio
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Defensor Sporting
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Frugone4/4
- A. Torterolo4/4
- B. Montenegro4/4
- E. Elizalde4/4
- G. De los Santos4/4
- L. Agazzi4/4
- G. Barrios3/4
- G. Rodriguez3/4
- K. Dawson3/4
- L. de los Santos3/4
- E. Cuello2/4
Danubio
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Balatti3/3
- M. Brasil3/3
- M. Goicoechea3/3
- M. Peralta3/3
- S. Fernandez3/3
- T. Cavanagh3/3
- J. Millan2/3
- L. Sosa2/3
- M. Rinaldi2/3
- S. Rodriguez2/3
- B. Tomatis1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Progreso – Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Penarol – Boston RiverSep 26, 2026
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Defensor Sporting vs Danubio prediction?
Our AI gives Defensor Sporting a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Danubio 23%. Defensor Sporting are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%) and 0-0 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
The probability that both Defensor Sporting and Danubio score is 51%. Defensor Sporting have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Danubio 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.66 for Defensor Sporting, 1.00 for Danubio). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Defensor Sporting vs Danubio played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo.
What form are Defensor Sporting and Danubio in?
Defensor Sporting: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Danubio: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Defensor Sporting and Danubio?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Defensor Sporting, 0 for Danubio and 1 draw. The most recent ended Danubio 0-0 Defensor Sporting (Mar 26, 2026).
How is the Defensor Sporting vs Danubio prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Defensor Sporting, 1.00 for Danubio) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Defensor Sporting predictions
- All Danubio predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology