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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Atletico Torque vs Penarol: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1 – 1PenarolPenarol

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Atletico Torque 1-1 Penarol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Torque (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

Match analysis

Atletico Torque vs Penarol was played on Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Torque a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 23%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Torque have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 12 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Penarol. On average Atletico Torque score 2.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Penarol score 2.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Atletico Torque sit 1st with 18 points from 7 games, Penarol 3rd with 15 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Torque, 4 for Penarol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 1-0 Atletico Torque (Aug 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Torque or draw" stands at 77%, "Penarol or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Our model backs Atletico Torque to edge Penarol (53% probability). In the table, Atletico Torque (1st, 18 pts) host Penarol (3rd, 15 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Atletico Torque (Win)
24%
Draw
23%
Penarol (Win)

Double chance

77%
Atletico Torque or draw
47%
Penarol or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico Torque – Penarol. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico Torque 1-0 Penarol11.6%
Atletico Torque 1-1 Penarol11.6%
Atletico Torque 2-0 Penarol9.6%
Atletico Torque 2-1 Penarol9.6%
Atletico Torque 0-0 Penarol7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.66 goals in total (1.66 for Atletico Torque, 1.00 for Penarol): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Atletico Torque keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Penarol in 19%.

Probability
Atletico Torque expected goals1.66
Penarol expected goals1.00
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Atletico Torque clean sheet37%
Penarol clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Atletico Torque

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 24, 2026Atenas · Copa Uruguay3-3D
Sep 21, 2026Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División4-1W
Sep 18, 2026Cienciano · CONMEBOL Sudamericana3-0W
Sep 14, 2026Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División3-1W

Penarol

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División2-1W
Sep 24, 2026Danubio · Copa Uruguay1-1D
Sep 19, 2026Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División2-1W
Sep 13, 2026Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División3-1W
Sep 5, 2026Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División4-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atletico Torque1187
Penarol3157

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 27, 2026Penarol 1-0 Atletico TorqueCopa Uruguay
Feb 7, 2026Penarol 3-1 Atletico TorquePrimera División
Nov 9, 2025Atletico Torque 0-2 PenarolPrimera División - Clausura
May 18, 2025Penarol 2-1 Atletico TorquePrimera División - Apertura
Apr 18, 2024Penarol 1-3 Atletico TorqueCopa Uruguay

Out and doubtful

Atletico Torque

No absences reported.

Penarol

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Atletico Torque

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Guzman3/4
  • F. Pizzichillo3/4
  • F. Silvera3/4
  • F. Torgnascioli3/4
  • G. Kagelmacher3/4
  • G. Montes3/4
  • K. Silva3/4
  • E. Aguero2/4
  • L. Andrade2/4
  • N. Da Silva2/4
  • P. Siles2/4

Penarol

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Jaime4/4
  • E. Remedi4/4
  • L. Umpierrez4/4
  • M. Arezo4/4
  • N. Fernandez4/4
  • W. Aguerre4/4
  • G. Pezzella3/4
  • J. Cabrera3/4
  • L. Ferreira3/4
  • M. Lemos3/4
  • M. Olivera3/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico Torque vs Penarol prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Torque a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 23%. Atletico Torque are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Torque vs Penarol?

1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.6%), 2-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%) and 0-0 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?

The probability that both Atletico Torque and Penarol score is 51%. Atletico Torque have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Penarol 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?

The model expects 2.66 goals (1.66 for Atletico Torque, 1.00 for Penarol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Atletico Torque vs Penarol played?

Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.

What form are Atletico Torque and Penarol in?

Atletico Torque: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 7 conceded). Penarol: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Torque and Penarol?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Torque, 4 for Penarol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 1-0 Atletico Torque (Aug 27, 2026).

What was the Atletico Torque vs Penarol result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico Torque 1-1 Penarol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Torque (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

How is the Atletico Torque vs Penarol prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Atletico Torque, 1.00 for Penarol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained