Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
Atletico Torque vs Penarol prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Uruguayan Primera División: the Atletico Torque vs Penarol match is scheduled on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. With a 67% win probability, Atletico Torque go in as strong favourites against Penarol (11%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (17.2%), ahead of 2-0 (15.4%) and 0-0 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Torque have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Torque score 2.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Penarol score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Atletico Torque sit 1st with 18 points from 6 games, Penarol 4th with 12 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Torque, 1 for Penarol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-1 Atletico Torque (Feb 7, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Torque or draw" stands at 89%, "Penarol or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Atletico Torque to edge Penarol (67% probability). In the table, Atletico Torque (1st, 18 pts) host Penarol (4th, 12 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Torque – Penarol. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque 1-0 Penarol | 17.2% |
| Atletico Torque 2-0 Penarol | 15.4% |
| Atletico Torque 0-0 Penarol | 9.6% |
| Atletico Torque 1-1 Penarol | 9.5% |
| Atletico Torque 3-0 Penarol | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.34 goals in total (1.79 for Atletico Torque, 0.55 for Penarol): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 35%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Atletico Torque keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Penarol in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque expected goals | 1.79 |
| Penarol expected goals | 0.55 |
| Both teams to score | 35% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Atletico Torque clean sheet | 58% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Torque
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Cienciano · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Danubio · Copa Uruguay | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Corinthians · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| May 16, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 | W |
| May 12, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Primera División - Apertura | 3-2 | W |
| May 7, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 1 | 18 | 6 |
| Penarol | 4 | 12 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Penarol 3-1 Atletico Torque | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Torque
No absences reported.
Penarol
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Torque
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Silvera3/3
- G. Kagelmacher3/3
- G. Montes3/3
- K. Silva3/3
- P. Siles3/3
- E. Aguero2/3
- E. Obregon2/3
- F. Pizzichillo2/3
- G. Rodriguez2/3
- L. Andrade2/3
- S. Rodriguez2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting – DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo – ProgresoOct 3, 2026
- Albion FC – Defensor SportingOct 3, 2026
- Boston River – JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo – PenarolOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Torque vs Penarol prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Torque a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 11%. Atletico Torque are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
1-0 (17.2%), followed by 2-0 (15.4%), 0-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
The probability that both Atletico Torque and Penarol score is 35%. Atletico Torque have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Penarol 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.79 for Atletico Torque, 0.55 for Penarol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Atletico Torque vs Penarol played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.
What form are Atletico Torque and Penarol in?
Atletico Torque: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded). Penarol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Torque and Penarol?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Torque, 1 for Penarol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-1 Atletico Torque (Feb 7, 2026).
How is the Atletico Torque vs Penarol prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.79 for Atletico Torque, 0.55 for Penarol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Torque predictions
- All Penarol predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology