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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Danubio vs Cerro Largo: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

DanubioDanubio2 – 1Cerro LargoCerro Largo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Danubio 2-1 Cerro Largo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Danubio at 50%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Danubio and Cerro Largo met on Sunday, October 4, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Danubio a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro Largo 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Danubio have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Cerro Largo have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Danubio score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Cerro Largo score 0.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Danubio sit 15th with 4 points from 8 games, Cerro Largo 13th with 5 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Danubio, 1 for Cerro Largo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro Largo 2-0 Danubio (Mar 30, 2026). In double chance terms, "Danubio or draw" stands at 75%, "Cerro Largo or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Danubio are tipped by our AI model in this Danubio v Cerro Largo (50%). In the table, Danubio (15th, 4 pts) host Cerro Largo (13th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

50%
Danubio (Win)
25%
Draw
25%
Cerro Largo (Win)

Double chance

75%
Danubio or draw
50%
Cerro Largo or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Danubio – Cerro Largo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Danubio 1-1 Cerro Largo11.9%
Danubio 1-0 Cerro Largo11.3%
Danubio 2-1 Cerro Largo9.5%
Danubio 2-0 Cerro Largo9.0%
Danubio 0-1 Cerro Largo7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.59 expected goals for Danubio and 1.05 for Cerro Largo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Danubio keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Cerro Largo in 20%.

Probability
Danubio expected goals1.59
Cerro Largo expected goals1.05
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Danubio clean sheet35%
Cerro Largo clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Danubio

DateOpponentScore
Sep 27, 2026Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Sep 24, 2026Penarol · Copa Uruguay1-1D
Sep 20, 2026Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División1-1D
Sep 13, 2026Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División1-1D
Sep 5, 2026Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División0-4L

Cerro Largo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 30, 2026Rentistas · Copa Uruguay1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 19, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 13, 2026Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D
Sep 9, 2026Defensor Sporting · Copa Uruguay1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Danubio1548
Cerro Largo1358

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 30, 2026Cerro Largo 2-0 DanubioUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Danubio

No absences reported.

Cerro Largo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Danubio

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • F. Balatti4/4
  • M. Goicoechea4/4
  • M. Peralta4/4
  • S. Fernandez4/4
  • T. Cavanagh4/4
  • J. Millan3/4
  • L. Sosa3/4
  • M. Brasil3/4
  • M. Rinaldi3/4
  • S. Rodriguez3/4
  • E. Velazquez2/4

Cerro Largo

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Hernandez3/3
  • A. Pandiani3/3
  • M. Garcia3/3
  • N. Ramos3/3
  • P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda3/3
  • S. Franca3/3
  • S. Marcel3/3
  • A. de Luca2/3
  • A. Piegas2/3
  • A. Segovia2/3
  • S. Assis2/3

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Danubio vs Cerro Largo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Danubio a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro Largo 25%. Danubio are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

1-1 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

The probability that both Danubio and Cerro Largo score is 52%. Danubio have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro Largo 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.59 for Danubio, 1.05 for Cerro Largo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Danubio vs Cerro Largo played?

Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Gardens of the Hippodrome, Montevideo.

What form are Danubio and Cerro Largo in?

Danubio: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Cerro Largo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Danubio and Cerro Largo?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Danubio, 1 for Cerro Largo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cerro Largo 2-0 Danubio (Mar 30, 2026).

What was the Danubio vs Cerro Largo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Danubio 2-1 Cerro Largo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Danubio at 50%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Danubio vs Cerro Largo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Danubio, 1.05 for Cerro Largo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained