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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)

Racing Montevideo vs Penarol prediction: correct score and AI tips

Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo–PenarolPenarol

Match analysis

Uruguayan Primera División: the Racing Montevideo vs Penarol match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo. The edge goes to Racing Montevideo (54%), ahead of the draw (27%) and a Penarol win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (17.1%), ahead of 0-0 (12.2%) and 2-0 (12.0%).

Racing Montevideo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Penarol. On average Racing Montevideo score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Penarol score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Racing Montevideo sit 6th with 12 points from 7 games, Penarol 4th with 12 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Racing Montevideo, 0 for Penarol and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-1 Penarol (Jul 12, 2026). In double chance terms, "Racing Montevideo or draw" stands at 81%, "Penarol or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Racing Montevideo are favourites for this Racing Montevideo v Penarol, with a 54% win probability from our model. In the table, Racing Montevideo (6th, 12 pts) host Penarol (4th, 12 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

54%
Racing Montevideo (Win)
27%
Draw
19%
Penarol (Win)

Double chance

81%
Racing Montevideo or draw
46%
Penarol or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Racing Montevideo – Penarol. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Racing Montevideo 1-0 Penarol17.1%
Racing Montevideo 0-0 Penarol12.2%
Racing Montevideo 2-0 Penarol12.0%
Racing Montevideo 1-1 Penarol12.0%
Racing Montevideo 0-1 Penarol8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.10 goals in total (1.40 for Racing Montevideo, 0.70 for Penarol): over 2.5 goals has a 35% probability and both teams to score 38%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Racing Montevideo keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Penarol in 25%.

Probability
Racing Montevideo expected goals1.40
Penarol expected goals0.70
Both teams to score38%
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Racing Montevideo clean sheet50%
Penarol clean sheet25%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Racing Montevideo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 21, 2026Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D
Sep 17, 2026Juventud · Copa Uruguay0-3L
Sep 12, 2026Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División3-2W
Sep 9, 2026Central Espanol · Copa Uruguay2-4L
Sep 6, 2026Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L

Penarol

DateOpponentScore
May 24, 2026Defensor Sporting · Primera División - Apertura2-0W
May 22, 2026Corinthians · CONMEBOL Libertadores1-1D
May 16, 2026Liverpool Montevideo · Primera División - Apertura2-1W
May 12, 2026Cerro Largo · Primera División - Apertura3-2W
May 7, 2026Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Racing Montevideo6127
Penarol4126

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 12, 2026Racing Montevideo 1-1 PenarolUruguayan Primera División
Mar 29, 2026Penarol 1-2 Racing MontevideoUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Racing Montevideo

No absences reported.

Penarol

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Racing Montevideo

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Vazquez3/3
  • Agustin De la Cuesta3/3
  • E. Da Silva3/3
  • F. Alvarez3/3
  • F. Gonzalez3/3
  • F. Varese3/3
  • S. Da Silva3/3
  • Y. Oyarzo3/3
  • E. Bentancor2/3
  • J. Bosca2/3
  • M. Ferreira2/3

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Racing Montevideo vs Penarol prediction?

Our AI gives Racing Montevideo a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Penarol 19%. Racing Montevideo are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

1-0 (17.1%), followed by 0-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (12.0%) and 0-1 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

The probability that both Racing Montevideo and Penarol score is 38%. Racing Montevideo have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Penarol 25%.

How many goals should we expect in Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

The model expects 2.10 goals (1.40 for Racing Montevideo, 0.70 for Penarol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.

When and where is Racing Montevideo vs Penarol played?

Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo.

What form are Racing Montevideo and Penarol in?

Racing Montevideo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). Penarol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Racing Montevideo and Penarol?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Racing Montevideo, 0 for Penarol and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-1 Penarol (Jul 12, 2026).

How is the Racing Montevideo vs Penarol prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.40 for Racing Montevideo, 0.70 for Penarol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained