Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Cerro vs Wanderers: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cerro 0-2 Wanderers. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (55%), while victory for Wanderers was rated at only 21%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.
Match analysis
Cerro vs Wanderers was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Cerro a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wanderers 21%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.2%).
Cerro have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Wanderers have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Cerro score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Wanderers score 1.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Cerro sit 6th with 14 points from 8 games, Wanderers 9th with 12 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wanderers 3-0 Cerro (Mar 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cerro or draw" stands at 79%, "Wanderers or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Cerro are favourites for this Cerro v Wanderers, with a 55% win probability from our model. In the table, Cerro (6th, 14 pts) host Wanderers (9th, 12 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cerro – Wanderers. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cerro 1-0 Wanderers | 11.7% |
| Cerro 1-1 Wanderers | 11.2% |
| Cerro 2-0 Wanderers | 10.2% |
| Cerro 2-1 Wanderers | 9.8% |
| Cerro 0-0 Wanderers | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.70 goals in total (1.74 for Cerro, 0.96 for Wanderers): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Cerro keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Wanderers in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cerro expected goals | 1.74 |
| Wanderers expected goals | 0.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 38% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cerro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| Wanderers | 9 | 12 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Wanderers 3-0 Cerro | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Cerro
No absences reported.
Wanderers
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cerro
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Macelli3/3
- B. Aleman3/3
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- J. Amaro3/3
- J. Guasone3/3
- Leonardo Pais3/3
- N. Arena3/3
- Y. Irrazabal3/3
- C. Barros2/3
- D. Suarez2/3
- E. Rodriguez2/3
Wanderers
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Buffa3/3
- F. Formiliano3/3
- F. Labandeira3/3
- J. Alberti3/3
- J. Zeballos3/3
- N. Cabral3/3
- N. Furtado3/3
- N. Queiroz3/3
- S. Benitez3/3
- L. Cosentino2/3
- L. Zazpe2/3
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque 1-1 PenarolOct 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo 3-2 ProgresoOct 3, 2026
- Albion FC 3-2 Defensor SportingOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 3-0 Central EspanolOct 3, 2026
- Danubio 2-1 Cerro LargoOct 4, 2026
- Boston River 0-0 JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo 0-1 PenarolOct 4, 2026
- Club Nacional 2-0 Atletico TorqueOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cerro vs Wanderers prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cerro a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wanderers 21%. Cerro are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Cerro vs Wanderers?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Cerro vs Wanderers?
The probability that both Cerro and Wanderers score is 51%. Cerro have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wanderers 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Cerro vs Wanderers?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.74 for Cerro, 0.96 for Wanderers). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Cerro vs Wanderers played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo.
What form are Cerro and Wanderers in?
Cerro: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Wanderers: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Wanderers?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wanderers 3-0 Cerro (Mar 28, 2026).
What was the Cerro vs Wanderers result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cerro 0-2 Wanderers. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (55%), while victory for Wanderers was rated at only 21%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.
How is the Cerro vs Wanderers prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.74 for Cerro, 0.96 for Wanderers) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cerro predictions
- All Wanderers predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology