Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Cerro vs Wanderers prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Uruguayan Primera División: the Cerro vs Wanderers match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). With a 66% win probability, Cerro go in as strong favourites against Wanderers (14%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cerro have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Wanderers have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Cerro. On average Cerro score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Wanderers score 0.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Cerro sit 3rd with 13 points from 7 games, Wanderers 9th with 9 points from 7. 6 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wanderers 3-0 Cerro (Mar 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cerro or draw" stands at 86%, "Wanderers or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Cerro are favourites for this Cerro v Wanderers, with a 66% win probability from our model. In the table, Cerro (3rd, 13 pts) host Wanderers (9th, 9 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cerro – Wanderers. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cerro 2-0 Wanderers | 11.9% |
| Cerro 1-0 Wanderers | 11.7% |
| Cerro 2-1 Wanderers | 9.8% |
| Cerro 1-1 Wanderers | 9.6% |
| Cerro 3-0 Wanderers | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (2.04 for Cerro, 0.82 for Wanderers): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 49%. Cerro keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Wanderers in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cerro expected goals | 2.04 |
| Wanderers expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 44% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cerro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 3 | 13 | 7 |
| Wanderers | 9 | 9 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Wanderers 3-0 Cerro | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Cerro
No absences reported.
Wanderers
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cerro
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Macelli3/3
- B. Aleman3/3
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- J. Amaro3/3
- J. Guasone3/3
- Leonardo Pais3/3
- N. Arena3/3
- Y. Irrazabal3/3
- A. Cambon2/3
- C. Barros2/3
- D. Suarez2/3
Wanderers
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Buffa3/3
- F. Formiliano3/3
- J. Alberti3/3
- N. Cabral3/3
- N. Furtado3/3
- N. Queiroz3/3
- S. Benitez3/3
- A. Garcia2/3
- F. Labandeira2/3
- J. Zeballos2/3
- L. Zazpe2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo – ProgresoOct 3, 2026
- Albion FC – Defensor SportingOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado – Central EspanolOct 3, 2026
- Danubio – Cerro LargoOct 4, 2026
- Boston River – JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo – PenarolOct 4, 2026
- Club Nacional – Atletico TorqueOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cerro vs Wanderers prediction?
Our AI gives Cerro a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Wanderers 14%. Cerro are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Cerro vs Wanderers?
2-0 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Cerro vs Wanderers?
The probability that both Cerro and Wanderers score is 49%. Cerro have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wanderers 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Cerro vs Wanderers?
The model expects 2.86 goals (2.04 for Cerro, 0.82 for Wanderers). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Cerro vs Wanderers played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División.
What form are Cerro and Wanderers in?
Cerro: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Wanderers: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Wanderers?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Wanderers and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wanderers 3-0 Cerro (Mar 28, 2026).
How is the Cerro vs Wanderers prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.04 for Cerro, 0.82 for Wanderers) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cerro predictions
- All Wanderers predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology