Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)
Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Uruguayan Primera División: Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol kicks off on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time). Our model makes Deportivo Maldonado clear favourites: a 77% chance of winning, against 15% for the draw and 8% for Central Espanol. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (10.7%) and 1-0 (10.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Maldonado have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Central Espanol have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Deportivo Maldonado therefore arrive in far better shape than Central Espanol. On average Deportivo Maldonado score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Central Espanol score 1.40 and concede 1.60. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado sit 7th with 11 points from 7 games, Central Espanol 14th with 5 points from 7. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Deportivo Maldonado, 1 for Central Espanol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Central Espanol 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportivo Maldonado or draw" stands at 92%, "Central Espanol or draw" at 23% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Deportivo Maldonado are favourites for this Deportivo Maldonado v Central Espanol, with a 77% win probability from our model. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado (7th, 11 pts) host Central Espanol (14th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Deportivo Maldonado – Central Espanol. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 Central Espanol | 13.1% |
| Deportivo Maldonado 3-0 Central Espanol | 10.7% |
| Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Central Espanol | 10.6% |
| Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 Central Espanol | 8.9% |
| Deportivo Maldonado 3-1 Central Espanol | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.46 expected goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.68 for Central Espanol, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 61% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Deportivo Maldonado keep a clean sheet in 51% of scenarios, Central Espanol in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado expected goals | 2.46 |
| Central Espanol expected goals | 0.68 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet | 51% |
| Central Espanol clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Deportivo Maldonado
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Cerro · Copa Uruguay | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Wanderers · Copa Uruguay | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
Central Espanol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oriental · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Copa Uruguay | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| Central Espanol | 14 | 5 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Central Espanol 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Deportivo Maldonado
No absences reported.
Central Espanol
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Deportivo Maldonado
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tabo3/3
- F. Tealde3/3
- G. Larrazabal3/3
- J. M. Ginzo3/3
- J. Ramos3/3
- M. Gonzalez3/3
- R. Cesar3/3
- S. Cartagena3/3
- S. Ramirez3/3
- D. Segovia2/3
- H. Menosse2/3
Central Espanol
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- Cesar Nunes3/3
- F. Pintado3/3
- F. Sosa3/3
- L. Pino3/3
- M. Gonzalez3/3
- M. Montiel3/3
- G. Gandolfo2/3
- I. Rodriguez2/3
- L. Fernandez2/3
- M. Alonso2/3
- A. Madruga1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo – ProgresoOct 3, 2026
- Albion FC – Defensor SportingOct 3, 2026
- Danubio – Cerro LargoOct 4, 2026
- Boston River – JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Cerro – WanderersOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo – PenarolOct 4, 2026
- Club Nacional – Atletico TorqueOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol prediction?
Our AI gives Deportivo Maldonado a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Central Espanol 8%. Deportivo Maldonado are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?
2-0 (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.9%) and 3-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?
The probability that both Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol score is 45%. Deportivo Maldonado have a 51% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Central Espanol 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?
The model expects 3.14 goals (2.46 for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.68 for Central Espanol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División.
What form are Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol in?
Deportivo Maldonado: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). Central Espanol: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Deportivo Maldonado, 1 for Central Espanol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Central Espanol 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado (Mar 31, 2026).
How is the Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.46 for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.68 for Central Espanol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Deportivo Maldonado predictions
- All Central Espanol predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology