Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Liverpool Montevideo take on Progreso on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo. Our model makes Liverpool Montevideo clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 14% for Progreso. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Liverpool Montevideo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Progreso have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Liverpool Montevideo score 1.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Progreso score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo sit 2nd with 14 points from 7 games, Progreso 10th with 9 points from 7. 8 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Liverpool Montevideo, 0 for Progreso and 1 draw. The most recent ended Progreso 3-3 Liverpool Montevideo (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Liverpool Montevideo or draw" stands at 86%, "Progreso or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Liverpool Montevideo to edge Progreso (66% probability). On recent form, Liverpool Montevideo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Progreso have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liverpool Montevideo – Progreso. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 Progreso | 12.0% |
| Liverpool Montevideo 1-0 Progreso | 11.7% |
| Liverpool Montevideo 2-1 Progreso | 9.7% |
| Liverpool Montevideo 1-1 Progreso | 9.5% |
| Liverpool Montevideo 3-0 Progreso | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.05 expected goals for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.81 for Progreso, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Liverpool Montevideo keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Progreso in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo expected goals | 2.05 |
| Progreso expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet | 45% |
| Progreso clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liverpool Montevideo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Colón · Copa Uruguay | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Boston River · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
Progreso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Club Nacional · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Albion FC · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 2 | 14 | 7 |
| Progreso | 10 | 9 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Progreso 3-3 Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Liverpool Montevideo
No absences reported.
Progreso
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Liverpool Montevideo
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cayetano3/3
- E. Castillo3/3
- F. Martinez3/3
- K. Lewis3/3
- L. Acosta3/3
- M. Bernatene3/3
- N. Garayalde3/3
- R. Bentancourt3/3
- S. Strasorier3/3
- R. Haller2/3
- R. Machado2/3
Progreso
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cougo3/3
- A. Ocampo3/3
- A. Pinheiro3/3
- F. De Leon3/3
- L. Viana3/3
- M. Martin3/3
- N. Lopez3/3
- R. Bacchia3/3
- R. Cristobal3/3
- E. Alvarez2/3
- H. Carroso2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque – PenarolOct 1, 2026
- Albion FC – Defensor SportingOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado – Central EspanolOct 3, 2026
- Danubio – Cerro LargoOct 4, 2026
- Boston River – JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Cerro – WanderersOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo – PenarolOct 4, 2026
- Club Nacional – Atletico TorqueOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso prediction?
Our AI gives Liverpool Montevideo a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Progreso 14%. Liverpool Montevideo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
The probability that both Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso score is 48%. Liverpool Montevideo have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Progreso 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
The model expects 2.86 goals (2.05 for Liverpool Montevideo, 0.81 for Progreso). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo.
What form are Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso in?
Liverpool Montevideo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Progreso: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Liverpool Montevideo, 0 for Progreso and 1 draw. The most recent ended Progreso 3-3 Liverpool Montevideo (Mar 31, 2026).
How is the Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Liverpool Montevideo, 0.81 for Progreso) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liverpool Montevideo predictions
- All Progreso predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology