Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Albion FC 3-2 Defensor Sporting. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Albion FC at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Albion FC and Defensor Sporting met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Albion FC a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensor Sporting 35%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%) and 0-1 (9.4%).
Albion FC have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Defensor Sporting have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Defensor Sporting therefore arrive in far better shape than Albion FC. On average Albion FC score 0.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Defensor Sporting score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Albion FC sit 16th with 0 points from 8 games, Defensor Sporting 12th with 8 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Albion FC, 0 for Defensor Sporting and 1 draw. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FC (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Albion FC or draw" stands at 65%, "Defensor Sporting or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Albion FC and Defensor Sporting: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Albion FC (16th, 0 pts) host Defensor Sporting (12th, 8 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 53%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Albion FC – Defensor Sporting. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Albion FC 1-1 Defensor Sporting | 12.6% |
| Albion FC 1-0 Defensor Sporting | 10.1% |
| Albion FC 0-1 Defensor Sporting | 9.4% |
| Albion FC 2-1 Defensor Sporting | 8.4% |
| Albion FC 1-2 Defensor Sporting | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.34 expected goals for Albion FC and 1.25 for Defensor Sporting, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Albion FC keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Defensor Sporting in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Albion FC expected goals | 1.34 |
| Defensor Sporting expected goals | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Albion FC clean sheet | 29% |
| Defensor Sporting clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Albion FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | CA River Plate · Copa Uruguay | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
Defensor Sporting
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Plaza Colonia · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albion FC | 16 | 0 | 8 |
| Defensor Sporting | 12 | 8 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FC | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Albion FC
No absences reported.
Defensor Sporting
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Albion FC
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Ginella4/4
- H. Toledo4/4
- J. Alvarez4/4
- P. Alcoba4/4
- S. Costa4/4
- S. Jaume4/4
- A. Lopez3/4
- B. Llana3/4
- F. Couture3/4
- C. Airala2/4
- T. Moschion2/4
Defensor Sporting
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Montenegro3/3
- E. Elizalde3/3
- G. Barrios3/3
- G. De los Santos3/3
- G. Rodriguez3/3
- K. Dawson3/3
- L. Agazzi3/3
- L. de los Santos3/3
- N. Wunsch3/3
- A. Frugone2/3
- A. Torterolo2/3
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque 1-1 PenarolOct 1, 2026
- Liverpool Montevideo 3-2 ProgresoOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 3-0 Central EspanolOct 3, 2026
- Danubio 2-1 Cerro LargoOct 4, 2026
- Boston River 0-0 JuventudOct 4, 2026
- Cerro 0-2 WanderersOct 4, 2026
- Racing Montevideo 0-1 PenarolOct 4, 2026
- Club Nacional 2-0 Atletico TorqueOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Albion FC a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensor Sporting 35%. Albion FC are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 1-2 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?
The probability that both Albion FC and Defensor Sporting score is 53%. Albion FC have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Defensor Sporting 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.34 for Albion FC, 1.25 for Defensor Sporting). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo.
What form are Albion FC and Defensor Sporting in?
Albion FC: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded). Defensor Sporting: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Albion FC and Defensor Sporting?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Albion FC, 0 for Defensor Sporting and 1 draw. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FC (Mar 31, 2026).
What was the Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Albion FC 3-2 Defensor Sporting. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Albion FC at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.34 for Albion FC, 1.25 for Defensor Sporting) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Albion FC predictions
- All Defensor Sporting predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology