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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting prediction: correct score and AI tips

Albion FCAlbion FC–Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting

Match analysis

Albion FC take on Defensor Sporting on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. Albion FC start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Defensor Sporting are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).

Albion FC have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Defensor Sporting have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Albion FC score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Defensor Sporting score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Albion FC sit 16th with 0 points from 7 games, Defensor Sporting 13th with 5 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Albion FC, 0 for Defensor Sporting and 1 draw. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FC (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Albion FC or draw" stands at 76%, "Defensor Sporting or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Our model backs Albion FC to edge Defensor Sporting (51% probability). In the table, Albion FC (16th, 0 pts) host Defensor Sporting (13th, 5 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

51%
Albion FC (Win)
25%
Draw
24%
Defensor Sporting (Win)

Double chance

76%
Albion FC or draw
49%
Defensor Sporting or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Albion FC – Defensor Sporting. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Albion FC 1-1 Defensor Sporting11.8%
Albion FC 1-0 Defensor Sporting11.4%
Albion FC 2-1 Defensor Sporting9.5%
Albion FC 2-0 Defensor Sporting9.2%
Albion FC 0-1 Defensor Sporting7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.61 expected goals for Albion FC and 1.04 for Defensor Sporting, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Albion FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Defensor Sporting in 20%.

Probability
Albion FC expected goals1.61
Defensor Sporting expected goals1.04
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Albion FC clean sheet35%
Defensor Sporting clean sheet20%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Albion FC

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L
Sep 16, 2026CA River Plate · Copa Uruguay0-0D
Sep 13, 2026Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L
Sep 7, 2026Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Sep 3, 2026Progreso · Copa Uruguay2-1W

Defensor Sporting

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División2-3L
Sep 13, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División1-0W
Sep 9, 2026Cerro Largo · Copa Uruguay1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División1-1D
Aug 29, 2026Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Albion FC1607
Defensor Sporting1357

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 31, 2026Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FCUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Albion FC

No absences reported.

Defensor Sporting

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Albion FC

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Lopez3/3
  • F. Ginella3/3
  • H. Toledo3/3
  • J. Alvarez3/3
  • P. Alcoba3/3
  • S. Costa3/3
  • S. Jaume3/3
  • B. Llana2/3
  • C. Airala2/3
  • F. Couture2/3
  • A. Vera1/3

Defensor Sporting

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Frugone4/4
  • A. Torterolo4/4
  • B. Montenegro4/4
  • E. Elizalde4/4
  • G. De los Santos4/4
  • L. Agazzi4/4
  • G. Barrios3/4
  • G. Rodriguez3/4
  • K. Dawson3/4
  • L. de los Santos3/4
  • E. Cuello2/4

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting prediction?

Our AI gives Albion FC a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 24%. Albion FC are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?

1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?

The probability that both Albion FC and Defensor Sporting score is 52%. Albion FC have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Defensor Sporting 20%.

How many goals should we expect in Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting?

The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Albion FC, 1.04 for Defensor Sporting). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo.

What form are Albion FC and Defensor Sporting in?

Albion FC: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Defensor Sporting: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Albion FC and Defensor Sporting?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Albion FC, 0 for Defensor Sporting and 1 draw. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 1-1 Albion FC (Mar 31, 2026).

How is the Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Albion FC, 1.04 for Defensor Sporting) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained