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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo prediction: correct score and AI tips

ProgresoProgreso–Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo

Match analysis

Uruguayan Primera División: Progreso vs Racing Montevideo kicks off on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Progreso 43%, Racing Montevideo 31% and the draw 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.4%), ahead of 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Progreso have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Racing Montevideo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Progreso score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Racing Montevideo score 1.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, Progreso sit 10th with 9 points from 7 games, Racing Montevideo 6th with 12 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Progreso, 0 for Racing Montevideo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-1 Progreso (Mar 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Progreso or draw" stands at 69%, "Racing Montevideo or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Progreso are tipped by our AI model in this Progreso v Racing Montevideo (43%). In the table, Progreso (10th, 9 pts) host Racing Montevideo (6th, 12 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

43%
Progreso (Win)
26%
Draw
31%
Racing Montevideo (Win)

Double chance

69%
Progreso or draw
57%
Racing Montevideo or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Progreso – Racing Montevideo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Progreso 1-1 Racing Montevideo12.4%
Progreso 1-0 Racing Montevideo10.7%
Progreso 2-1 Racing Montevideo8.9%
Progreso 0-1 Racing Montevideo8.6%
Progreso 2-0 Racing Montevideo7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.60 goals in total (1.44 for Progreso, 1.16 for Racing Montevideo): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Progreso keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Racing Montevideo in 24%.

Probability
Progreso expected goals1.44
Racing Montevideo expected goals1.16
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Progreso clean sheet31%
Racing Montevideo clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Progreso

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División2-1W
Sep 16, 2026Club Nacional · Copa Uruguay0-1L
Sep 13, 2026Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L
Sep 7, 2026Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División1-0W
Sep 3, 2026Albion FC · Copa Uruguay1-2L

Racing Montevideo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 21, 2026Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D
Sep 17, 2026Juventud · Copa Uruguay0-3L
Sep 12, 2026Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División3-2W
Sep 9, 2026Central Espanol · Copa Uruguay2-4L
Sep 6, 2026Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Progreso1097
Racing Montevideo6127

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 26, 2026Racing Montevideo 1-1 ProgresoUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Progreso

No absences reported.

Racing Montevideo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Progreso

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Cougo3/3
  • A. Ocampo3/3
  • A. Pinheiro3/3
  • F. De Leon3/3
  • L. Viana3/3
  • M. Martin3/3
  • N. Lopez3/3
  • R. Bacchia3/3
  • R. Cristobal3/3
  • E. Alvarez2/3
  • H. Carroso2/3

Racing Montevideo

Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Vazquez3/3
  • Agustin De la Cuesta3/3
  • E. Da Silva3/3
  • F. Alvarez3/3
  • F. Gonzalez3/3
  • F. Varese3/3
  • S. Da Silva3/3
  • Y. Oyarzo3/3
  • E. Bentancor2/3
  • J. Bosca2/3
  • M. Ferreira2/3

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Progreso vs Racing Montevideo prediction?

Our AI gives Progreso a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Racing Montevideo 31%. Progreso are therefore slight favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

1-1 (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

The probability that both Progreso and Racing Montevideo score is 52%. Progreso have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Racing Montevideo 24%.

How many goals should we expect in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

The model expects 2.60 goals (1.44 for Progreso, 1.16 for Racing Montevideo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Progreso vs Racing Montevideo played?

Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo.

What form are Progreso and Racing Montevideo in?

Progreso: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Racing Montevideo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Racing Montevideo?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Progreso, 0 for Racing Montevideo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 1-1 Progreso (Mar 26, 2026).

How is the Progreso vs Racing Montevideo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Progreso, 1.16 for Racing Montevideo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained