Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Penarol vs Boston River prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Penarol take on Boston River on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. It is a tight call: 43% for Penarol, 32% for the draw and 25% for Boston River. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.5%), followed by 0-0 (16.5%) and 1-1 (13.0%).
Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Boston River have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 12. Penarol therefore arrive in far better shape than Boston River. On average Penarol score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Boston River score 2.00 and concede 2.40. In the table, Penarol sit 4th with 12 points from 6 games, Boston River 11th with 8 points from 7. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Penarol, 0 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-0 Boston River (Jul 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Penarol or draw" stands at 75%, "Boston River or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 68%.
In short : Penarol are favourites for this Penarol v Boston River, with a 43% win probability from our model. In the table, Penarol (4th, 12 pts) host Boston River (11th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Penarol – Boston River. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penarol 1-0 Boston River | 17.5% |
| Penarol 0-0 Boston River | 16.5% |
| Penarol 1-1 Boston River | 13.0% |
| Penarol 0-1 Boston River | 12.2% |
| Penarol 2-0 Boston River | 9.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.06 expected goals for Penarol and 0.74 for Boston River, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 27% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Few goals are expected here. Penarol keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Boston River in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Penarol expected goals | 1.06 |
| Boston River expected goals | 0.74 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 48% |
| Boston River clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Defensor Sporting · Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Corinthians · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| May 16, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 | W |
| May 12, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Primera División - Apertura | 3-2 | W |
| May 7, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
Boston River
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Cerro Largo · Primera División - Apertura | 0-3 | L |
| May 20, 2026 | O'Higgins · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3-2 | W |
| May 16, 2026 | Cerro · Primera División - Apertura | 4-1 | W |
| May 11, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 | L |
| May 7, 2026 | Millonarios · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| Boston River | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Penarol 3-0 Boston River | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Boston River 0-2 Penarol | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Penarol
No absences reported.
Boston River
No absences reported.
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Progreso – Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Central Espanol – Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting – DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers – Albion FCSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Penarol vs Boston River prediction?
Our AI gives Penarol a 43% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Boston River 25%. Penarol are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Penarol vs Boston River?
1-0 (17.5%), followed by 0-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (9.3%).
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Boston River?
The probability that both Penarol and Boston River score is 34%. Penarol have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Boston River 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model expects 1.80 goals (1.06 for Penarol, 0.74 for Boston River). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 54%, over 2.5 goals 27%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is Penarol vs Boston River played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División.
What form are Penarol and Boston River in?
Penarol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Boston River: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Penarol and Boston River?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Penarol, 0 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-0 Boston River (Jul 18, 2026).
How is the Penarol vs Boston River prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.06 for Penarol, 0.74 for Boston River) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Penarol predictions
- All Boston River predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology