Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Penarol vs Boston River: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Penarol 2-1 Boston River. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Penarol at 72%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
Match analysis
Penarol and Boston River met on Saturday, September 26, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Penarol a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Boston River 11%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 3-0 (9.6%).
Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Boston River have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Penarol therefore arrive in far better shape than Boston River. On average Penarol score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Boston River score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Penarol sit 4th with 12 points from 6 games, Boston River 11th with 8 points from 7. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Penarol, 0 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-0 Boston River (Jul 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Penarol or draw" stands at 89%, "Boston River or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Penarol are favourites for this Penarol v Boston River, with a 72% win probability from our model. In the table, Penarol (4th, 12 pts) host Boston River (11th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Penarol – Boston River. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penarol 2-0 Boston River | 12.7% |
| Penarol 1-0 Boston River | 11.3% |
| Penarol 3-0 Boston River | 9.6% |
| Penarol 2-1 Boston River | 9.4% |
| Penarol 1-1 Boston River | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.26 expected goals for Penarol and 0.74 for Boston River, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 58% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Penarol keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Boston River in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Penarol expected goals | 2.26 |
| Boston River expected goals | 0.74 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 48% |
| Boston River clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Danubio · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Atenas · Copa Uruguay | 2-2 | D |
Boston River
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Fenix · Copa Uruguay | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Colón · Copa Uruguay | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| Boston River | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Penarol 3-0 Boston River | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Boston River 0-2 Penarol | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Penarol
No absences reported.
Boston River
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Penarol
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Jaime3/3
- E. Remedi3/3
- L. Umpierrez3/3
- M. Arezo3/3
- M. Lemos3/3
- N. Fernandez3/3
- W. Aguerre3/3
- E. Darias2/3
- G. Pezzella2/3
- J. Cabrera2/3
- L. Ferreira2/3
Boston River
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Antunez3/3
- F. Aristegui3/3
- F. Martinez3/3
- J. Acosta3/3
- L. Suhr3/3
- L. Vazquez3/3
- F. Bonfiglio2/3
- M. Gonzalez2/3
- M. Orona2/3
- N. Siri2/3
- R. A. Saravia Salvia2/3
Other matches in this competition
- Progreso 2-1 Racing MontevideoSep 26, 2026
- Cerro Largo 0-2 Club NacionalSep 26, 2026
- Atletico Torque 0-2 Deportivo MaldonadoSep 27, 2026
- Central Espanol 1-2 Liverpool MontevideoSep 27, 2026
- Juventud 0-0 CerroSep 27, 2026
- Defensor Sporting 1-0 DanubioSep 27, 2026
- Wanderers 2-1 Albion FCSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Penarol vs Boston River prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Penarol a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Boston River 11%. Penarol are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Penarol vs Boston River?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-1 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Boston River?
The probability that both Penarol and Boston River score is 47%. Penarol have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Boston River 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model expects 3.00 goals (2.26 for Penarol, 0.74 for Boston River). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Penarol vs Boston River played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.
What form are Penarol and Boston River in?
Penarol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). Boston River: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Penarol and Boston River?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Penarol, 0 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 3-0 Boston River (Jul 18, 2026).
What was the Penarol vs Boston River result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Penarol 2-1 Boston River. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Penarol at 72%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
How is the Penarol vs Boston River prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.26 for Penarol, 0.74 for Boston River) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Penarol predictions
- All Boston River predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology