Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cerro at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Defensor Sporting and Cerro met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Defensor Sporting a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cerro 39%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%) and 1-0 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Defensor Sporting have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Cerro have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Defensor Sporting score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Cerro score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Defensor Sporting sit 12th with 8 points from 9 games, Cerro 8th with 14 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Defensor Sporting, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 2-1 Cerro (Aug 3, 2026). In double chance terms, "Defensor Sporting or draw" stands at 61%, "Cerro or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Defensor Sporting host Cerro in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (26%). On recent form, Defensor Sporting have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Cerro have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Defensor Sporting – Cerro. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting 1-1 Cerro | 12.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 0-1 Cerro | 10.1% |
| Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro | 9.5% |
| Defensor Sporting 1-2 Cerro | 8.4% |
| Defensor Sporting 2-1 Cerro | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.25 expected goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.33 for Cerro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Defensor Sporting keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Cerro in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting expected goals | 1.25 |
| Cerro expected goals | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Defensor Sporting clean sheet | 26% |
| Cerro clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Defensor Sporting
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Plaza Colonia · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Cerro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| Cerro | 8 | 14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Defensor Sporting 2-1 Cerro | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Defensor Sporting
No absences reported.
Cerro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Defensor Sporting
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Montenegro4/4
- G. Barrios4/4
- G. De los Santos4/4
- G. Rodriguez4/4
- K. Dawson4/4
- L. Agazzi4/4
- L. de los Santos4/4
- N. Wunsch4/4
- E. Elizalde3/4
- A. Frugone2/4
- A. Torterolo2/4
Cerro
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Macelli4/4
- B. Aleman4/4
- G. Rodriguez4/4
- J. Amaro4/4
- J. Guasone4/4
- Leonardo Pais4/4
- Y. Irrazabal4/4
- C. Barros3/4
- D. Suarez3/4
- E. Rodriguez3/4
- N. Arena3/4
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque 1-0 DanubioOct 9, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool MontevideoOct 10, 2026
- Wanderers 1-3 Boston RiverOct 10, 2026
- Penarol 1-1 ProgresoOct 10, 2026
- Juventud 2-0 Racing MontevideoOct 11, 2026
- Cerro Largo 0-1 Albion FCOct 11, 2026
- Central Espanol 0-1 Club NacionalOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Defensor Sporting a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cerro 39%. Cerro are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%), 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
The probability that both Defensor Sporting and Cerro score is 53%. Defensor Sporting have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.25 for Defensor Sporting, 1.33 for Cerro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Defensor Sporting vs Cerro played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo.
What form are Defensor Sporting and Cerro in?
Defensor Sporting: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Cerro: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Defensor Sporting and Cerro?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Defensor Sporting, 1 for Cerro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Defensor Sporting 2-1 Cerro (Aug 3, 2026).
What was the Defensor Sporting vs Cerro result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cerro at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.25 for Defensor Sporting, 1.33 for Cerro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Defensor Sporting predictions
- All Cerro predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology