Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Penarol vs Progreso: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Penarol 1-1 Progreso. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (69%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
Match analysis
Penarol and Progreso met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Penarol a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Progreso 12%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Penarol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Progreso have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Penarol therefore arrive in far better shape than Progreso. On average Penarol score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Progreso score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Penarol sit 3rd with 19 points from 9 games, Progreso 10th with 12 points from 9. 7 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Penarol, 0 for Progreso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Progreso 0-2 Penarol (Apr 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Penarol or draw" stands at 88%, "Progreso or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Penarol are tipped by our AI model in this Penarol v Progreso (69%). On recent form, Penarol have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Progreso have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Penarol – Progreso. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penarol 2-0 Progreso | 12.3% |
| Penarol 1-0 Progreso | 11.5% |
| Penarol 2-1 Progreso | 9.6% |
| Penarol 1-1 Progreso | 9.0% |
| Penarol 3-0 Progreso | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.15 expected goals for Penarol and 0.78 for Progreso, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Penarol keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Progreso in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Penarol expected goals | 2.15 |
| Progreso expected goals | 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 46% |
| Progreso clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Danubio · Copa Uruguay | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
Progreso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Club Nacional · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 3 | 19 | 9 |
| Progreso | 10 | 12 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Progreso 0-2 Penarol | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Penarol
No absences reported.
Progreso
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Penarol
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Jaime4/4
- E. Remedi4/4
- J. Cabrera4/4
- L. Umpierrez4/4
- M. Arezo4/4
- W. Aguerre4/4
- G. Pezzella3/4
- L. Ferreira3/4
- M. Olivera3/4
- N. Fernandez3/4
- T. N. Espinosa Dovat3/4
Progreso
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cougo4/4
- A. Ocampo4/4
- A. Pinheiro4/4
- M. Martin4/4
- N. Lopez4/4
- R. Bacchia4/4
- R. Cristobal4/4
- G. Trasante3/4
- M. Saravia3/4
- E. Alvarez2/4
- F. De Leon2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque 1-0 DanubioOct 9, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool MontevideoOct 10, 2026
- Defensor Sporting 2-3 CerroOct 10, 2026
- Wanderers 1-3 Boston RiverOct 10, 2026
- Juventud 2-0 Racing MontevideoOct 11, 2026
- Cerro Largo 0-1 Albion FCOct 11, 2026
- Central Espanol 0-1 Club NacionalOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Penarol vs Progreso prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Penarol a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Progreso 12%. Penarol are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Penarol vs Progreso?
2-0 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Progreso?
The probability that both Penarol and Progreso score is 48%. Penarol have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Progreso 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Penarol vs Progreso?
The model expects 2.93 goals (2.15 for Penarol, 0.78 for Progreso). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Penarol vs Progreso played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.
What form are Penarol and Progreso in?
Penarol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Progreso: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Penarol and Progreso?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Penarol, 0 for Progreso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Progreso 0-2 Penarol (Apr 4, 2026).
What was the Penarol vs Progreso result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Penarol 1-1 Progreso. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (69%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
How is the Penarol vs Progreso prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.15 for Penarol, 0.78 for Progreso) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Penarol predictions
- All Progreso predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology