Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Wanderers vs Boston River: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Wanderers 1-3 Boston River. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wanderers (70%), while victory for Boston River was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Wanderers vs Boston River was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Wanderers a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Boston River 12%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.6%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Wanderers have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Boston River have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Wanderers. On average Wanderers score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Boston River score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Wanderers sit 6th with 15 points from 9 games, Boston River 11th with 9 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wanderers, 1 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Boston River 4-1 Wanderers (Apr 3, 2026). In double chance terms, "Wanderers or draw" stands at 88%, "Boston River or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Wanderers are favourites for this Wanderers v Boston River, with a 70% win probability from our model. In the table, Wanderers (6th, 15 pts) host Boston River (11th, 9 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wanderers – Boston River. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wanderers 2-0 Boston River | 12.6% |
| Wanderers 1-0 Boston River | 11.5% |
| Wanderers 2-1 Boston River | 9.5% |
| Wanderers 3-0 Boston River | 9.1% |
| Wanderers 1-1 Boston River | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.94 goals in total (2.18 for Wanderers, 0.76 for Boston River): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 47%. Wanderers keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Boston River in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wanderers expected goals | 2.18 |
| Boston River expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 47% |
| Boston River clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Cerrito · Copa Uruguay | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
Boston River
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Fenix · Copa Uruguay | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| Boston River | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Boston River 4-1 Wanderers | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Wanderers
No absences reported.
Boston River
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Wanderers
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Buffa3/3
- F. Formiliano3/3
- F. Labandeira3/3
- J. Alberti3/3
- J. Zeballos3/3
- L. Cosentino3/3
- N. Cabral3/3
- N. Furtado3/3
- N. Queiroz3/3
- S. Benitez3/3
- D. J. Mencia Hernandez2/3
Boston River
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Antunez4/4
- F. Martinez4/4
- J. Acosta4/4
- L. Vazquez4/4
- F. Bonfiglio3/4
- L. Suhr3/4
- M. Gonzalez3/4
- R. A. Saravia Salvia3/4
- A. Aguirre2/4
- A. Amado2/4
- F. Aristegui2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Torque 1-0 DanubioOct 9, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool MontevideoOct 10, 2026
- Defensor Sporting 2-3 CerroOct 10, 2026
- Penarol 1-1 ProgresoOct 10, 2026
- Juventud 2-0 Racing MontevideoOct 11, 2026
- Cerro Largo 0-1 Albion FCOct 11, 2026
- Central Espanol 0-1 Club NacionalOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Wanderers vs Boston River prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Wanderers a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Boston River 12%. Wanderers are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Wanderers vs Boston River?
2-0 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.1%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Wanderers vs Boston River?
The probability that both Wanderers and Boston River score is 47%. Wanderers have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Boston River 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Wanderers vs Boston River?
The model expects 2.94 goals (2.18 for Wanderers, 0.76 for Boston River). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Wanderers vs Boston River played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, Montevideo.
What form are Wanderers and Boston River in?
Wanderers: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Boston River: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Wanderers and Boston River?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wanderers, 1 for Boston River and 0 draws. The most recent ended Boston River 4-1 Wanderers (Apr 3, 2026).
What was the Wanderers vs Boston River result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Wanderers 1-3 Boston River. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wanderers (70%), while victory for Boston River was rated at only 12%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Wanderers vs Boston River prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.18 for Wanderers, 0.76 for Boston River) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wanderers predictions
- All Boston River predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology