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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1 – 1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool Montevideo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportivo Maldonado (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado. Before kick-off, our model gave Deportivo Maldonado a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Liverpool Montevideo 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Maldonado have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Liverpool Montevideo have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Deportivo Maldonado score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Liverpool Montevideo score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th with 17 points from 9 games, Liverpool Montevideo 1st with 20 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Maldonado, 0 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool Montevideo 0-2 Deportivo Maldonado (Apr 5, 2026). In double chance terms, "Deportivo Maldonado or draw" stands at 73%, "Liverpool Montevideo or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Deportivo Maldonado are tipped by our AI model in this Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo (47%). On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Liverpool Montevideo have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

47%
Deportivo Maldonado (Win)
26%
Draw
27%
Liverpool Montevideo (Win)

Double chance

73%
Deportivo Maldonado or draw
53%
Liverpool Montevideo or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Deportivo Maldonado – Liverpool Montevideo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool Montevideo12.1%
Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Liverpool Montevideo11.1%
Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 Liverpool Montevideo9.3%
Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 Liverpool Montevideo8.5%
Deportivo Maldonado 0-1 Liverpool Montevideo7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.53 for Deportivo Maldonado, 1.09 for Liverpool Montevideo): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Deportivo Maldonado keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Liverpool Montevideo in 22%.

Probability
Deportivo Maldonado expected goals1.53
Liverpool Montevideo expected goals1.09
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet34%
Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Deportivo Maldonado

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División3-0W
Sep 27, 2026Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División2-0W
Sep 24, 2026Cerro · Copa Uruguay2-1W
Sep 19, 2026Cerro Largo · Uruguayan Primera División2-0W
Sep 13, 2026Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L

Liverpool Montevideo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 3, 2026Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División3-2W
Sep 27, 2026Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División2-1W
Sep 23, 2026Colón · Copa Uruguay3-0W
Sep 21, 2026Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D
Sep 14, 2026Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Deportivo Maldonado4179
Liverpool Montevideo1209

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 5, 2026Liverpool Montevideo 0-2 Deportivo MaldonadoUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Deportivo Maldonado

No absences reported.

Liverpool Montevideo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Deportivo Maldonado

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Segovia4/4
  • J. M. Ginzo4/4
  • J. Ramos4/4
  • M. Gonzalez4/4
  • R. Cesar4/4
  • S. Cartagena4/4
  • C. Tabo3/4
  • F. Tealde3/4
  • G. Larrazabal3/4
  • N. Fuica3/4
  • S. Ramirez3/4

Liverpool Montevideo

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Cayetano4/4
  • E. Castillo4/4
  • F. Martinez4/4
  • K. Lewis4/4
  • L. Acosta4/4
  • M. Bernatene4/4
  • R. Bentancourt4/4
  • R. Haller4/4
  • S. Strasorier4/4
  • N. Garayalde3/4
  • T. Brizuela3/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Deportivo Maldonado a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Liverpool Montevideo 27%. Deportivo Maldonado are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.5%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo?

The probability that both Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo score is 52%. Deportivo Maldonado have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Liverpool Montevideo 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.53 for Deportivo Maldonado, 1.09 for Liverpool Montevideo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Maldonado.

What form are Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo in?

Deportivo Maldonado: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Liverpool Montevideo: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Deportivo Maldonado, 0 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Liverpool Montevideo 0-2 Deportivo Maldonado (Apr 5, 2026).

What was the Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 Liverpool Montevideo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Deportivo Maldonado (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Deportivo Maldonado, 1.09 for Liverpool Montevideo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained