Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 6: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Bayer Leverkusen 44%, SC Freiburg 36% and the draw 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (7.5%), ahead of 2-2 (7.3%) and 1-1 (6.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 16 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with SC Freiburg. On average Bayer Leverkusen score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; SC Freiburg score 3.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th with 7 points from 4 games, SC Freiburg 3rd with 10 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 2.31 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.81 for SC Freiburg.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for SC Freiburg and 1 draw. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Mar 7, 2026). Bayer Leverkusen out or doubtful: M. Culbreath, G. Doue, C. Kofane and K. Eichhorn (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bayer Leverkusen or draw" stands at 64%, "SC Freiburg or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Bayer Leverkusen to edge SC Freiburg (44% probability). On recent form, Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while SC Freiburg are in good shape (4 wins in 5). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 78%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg | 7.5% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 SC Freiburg | 7.3% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 SC Freiburg | 6.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 SC Freiburg | 6.7% |
| Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 SC Freiburg | 5.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.10 goals in total (2.16 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.94 for SC Freiburg): over 2.5 goals has a 78% probability and both teams to score 76%. Everything points to an open game. Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, SC Freiburg in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen expected goals | 2.16 |
| SC Freiburg expected goals | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 14% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Celje · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Luzern · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| SC Freiburg | 3 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Bayer Leverkusen
- M. Culbreath (out)
- G. Doue (out)
- C. Kofane (out)
- K. Eichhorn (doubtful)
SC Freiburg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bayer Leverkusen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tapsoba5/5
- M. Flekken5/5
- A. Garcia4/5
- F. Medina4/5
- I. Maza4/5
- P. Schick4/5
- A. Moreira3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- J. Quansah3/5
- M. Diaby3/5
- M. Gutierrez3/5
SC Freiburg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Beste5/5
- M. Ginter5/5
- D. Scherhant4/5
- I. Matanovic4/5
- J. Makengo4/5
- M. Backhaus4/5
- M. Eggestein4/5
- P. Lienhart4/5
- Y. Engelhardt4/5
- Y. Suzuki4/5
- P. Treu3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Hamburger SV – VfB StuttgartOct 17, 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia DortmundOct 17, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05Oct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07Oct 17, 2026
- Bayern München – RB LeipzigOct 17, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction?
Our AI gives Bayer Leverkusen a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SC Freiburg 36%. Bayer Leverkusen are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
2-1 (7.5%), followed by 2-2 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.9%), 1-2 (6.7%) and 3-1 (5.4%).
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
The probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg score is 76%. Bayer Leverkusen have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Freiburg 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
The model expects 4.10 goals (2.16 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.94 for SC Freiburg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 59%.
When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6. Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). SC Freiburg: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for SC Freiburg and 1 draw. The most recent ended SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Mar 7, 2026).
How is the Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.16 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.94 for SC Freiburg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bayer Leverkusen predictions
- All SC Freiburg predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology