Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Werder Bremen take on SC Paderborn 07 on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), a Bundesliga, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen. Werder Bremen start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; SC Paderborn 07 are given 17% and the draw 33%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (22.0%), followed by 0-0 (20.0%) and 2-0 (12.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Werder Bremen have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Over their last 5 matches, SC Paderborn 07 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Werder Bremen score 1.60 and concede 3.00 goals per game; SC Paderborn 07 score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Werder Bremen sit 8th with 7 points from 4 games, SC Paderborn 07 12th with 4 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Werder Bremen have averaged 0.74 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.75 for SC Paderborn 07.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Werder Bremen, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draw. The most recent ended SC Paderborn 07 0-1 Werder Bremen (Oct 30, 2024). Werder Bremen out or doubtful: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, K. Topp and S. Lynen (doubtful). SC Paderborn 07: T. Gayret, M. Hoffmeier, N. Awortwie-Grant (doubtful) and L. Eickel (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Werder Bremen or draw" stands at 83%, "SC Paderborn 07 or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 67%.
In short : Our model backs Werder Bremen to edge SC Paderborn 07 (50% probability). On recent form, Werder Bremen have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while SC Paderborn 07 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 76% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen 1-0 SC Paderborn 07 | 22.0% |
| Werder Bremen 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 | 20.0% |
| Werder Bremen 2-0 SC Paderborn 07 | 12.1% |
| Werder Bremen 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 | 11.2% |
| Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 | 10.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.10 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 0.51 for SC Paderborn 07, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 22% and "both teams to score" at 27%. Few goals are expected here. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 60% of scenarios, SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen expected goals | 1.10 |
| SC Paderborn 07 expected goals | 0.51 |
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 60% |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Twente · Club Friendlies | 0-7 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
SC Paderborn 07
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | DC United · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 12 | 4 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | SC Paderborn 07 0-1 Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| Oct 19, 2022 | SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SC Paderborn 07 3-4 Werder Bremen | 2. Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Werder Bremen 1-4 SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Jun 13, 2020 | SC Paderborn 07 1-5 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agu (out)
- S. Alvero (out)
- S. Musah (out)
- M. N'Diaye (out)
- J. Njinmah (out)
- J. Stage (out)
- K. Topp (out)
- S. Lynen (doubtful)
SC Paderborn 07
- T. Gayret (out)
- M. Hoffmeier (out)
- N. Awortwie-Grant (doubtful)
- L. Eickel (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Werder Bremen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Pieper5/5
- Chuki5/5
- L. Reis5/5
- N. Fullkrug5/5
- Arthur4/5
- K. Hein4/5
- M. Friedl4/5
- M. Grull4/5
- O. Deman4/5
- Y. Regeer4/5
- E. Dinkci3/5
SC Paderborn 07
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Vidovic5/5
- J. ter Horst5/5
- M. Pieringer5/5
- S. Castaneda5/5
- L. Curda4/5
- L. Ulrich4/5
- M. Hansen4/5
- N. Noll4/5
- R. Obermair4/5
- T. Scheller4/5
- S. Marino3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Hamburger SV – VfB StuttgartOct 17, 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia DortmundOct 17, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05Oct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Bayern München – RB LeipzigOct 17, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgOct 18, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction?
Our AI gives Werder Bremen a 50% chance of winning, the draw 33% and SC Paderborn 07 17%. Werder Bremen are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
1-0 (22.0%), followed by 0-0 (20.0%), 2-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.2%) and 0-1 (10.2%).
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
The probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 score is 27%. Werder Bremen have a 60% chance of keeping a clean sheet, SC Paderborn 07 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
The model expects 1.61 goals (1.10 for Werder Bremen, 0.51 for SC Paderborn 07). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 48%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.
When and where is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6. Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Werder Bremen: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 15 conceded). SC Paderborn 07: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Werder Bremen, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draw. The most recent ended SC Paderborn 07 0-1 Werder Bremen (Oct 30, 2024).
How is the Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for Werder Bremen, 0.51 for SC Paderborn 07) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Werder Bremen predictions
- All SC Paderborn 07 predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology