Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 6: the FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). Venue: Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen. Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 clear favourites: a 64% chance of winning, against 29% for the draw and 7% for FC Schalke 04. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (27.7%), followed by 0-0 (21.4%) and 0-2 (17.8%).
FC Schalke 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average FC Schalke 04 score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, FC Schalke 04 sit 11th with 5 points from 4 games, FSV Mainz 05 6th with 7 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FC Schalke 04 have averaged 0.21 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.23 for FSV Mainz 05.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for FC Schalke 04, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3 draws. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04 (May 5, 2023). FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, R. Zentner, A. Caci (doubtful), P. Nebel (doubtful), O. Ruoppi (doubtful) and S. Widmer (doubtful). In double chance terms, "FC Schalke 04 or draw" stands at 36%, "FSV Mainz 05 or draw" at 93% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Our model backs FSV Mainz 05 to edge FC Schalke 04 (64% probability). In the table, FC Schalke 04 (11th, 5 pts) host FSV Mainz 05 (6th, 7 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (27.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 82% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 | 27.7% |
| FC Schalke 04 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 | 21.4% |
| FC Schalke 04 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 | 17.8% |
| FC Schalke 04 0-3 FSV Mainz 05 | 7.7% |
| FC Schalke 04 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.25 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.29 for FSV Mainz 05, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 20% and "both teams to score" at 16%. Few goals are expected here. FC Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, FSV Mainz 05 in 78%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 expected goals | 0.25 |
| FSV Mainz 05 expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 16% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7% |
| FC Schalke 04 clean sheet | 28% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 78% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Schalke 04
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Austria Lustenau · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Waldhof Mannheim · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2022 | FC Schalke 04 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Mar 5, 2021 | FC Schalke 04 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 7, 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 2-2 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Feb 16, 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 0-0 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
FC Schalke 04
No absences reported.
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohr (out)
- Silas (out)
- R. Zentner (out)
- A. Caci (doubtful)
- P. Nebel (doubtful)
- O. Ruoppi (doubtful)
- S. Widmer (doubtful)
Most regular starters
FC Schalke 04
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Kurucay4/5
- J. Dina Ebimbe4/5
- L. Karius4/5
- R. Gosens4/5
- A. Aouchiche3/5
- K. Karaman3/5
- M. Sylla3/5
- N. Katic3/5
- S. El-Faouzi3/5
- S. Tanaka3/5
- T. Becker3/5
FSV Mainz 05
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Caci4/4
- F. Gruber4/4
- K. Sano4/4
- Lee Jae-Sung4/4
- N. Amiri4/4
- P. Mwene4/4
- P. Tietz4/4
- S. Becker4/4
- K. Potulski3/4
- S. Posch3/4
- A. Schwolow2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Hamburger SV – VfB StuttgartOct 17, 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia DortmundOct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07Oct 17, 2026
- Bayern München – RB LeipzigOct 17, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgOct 18, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction?
Our AI gives FC Schalke 04 a 7% chance of winning, the draw 29% and FSV Mainz 05 64%. FSV Mainz 05 are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
0-1 (27.7%), followed by 0-0 (21.4%), 0-2 (17.8%), 0-3 (7.7%) and 1-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
The probability that both FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 score is 16%. FC Schalke 04 have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FSV Mainz 05 78%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model expects 1.54 goals (0.25 for FC Schalke 04, 1.29 for FSV Mainz 05). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 46%, over 2.5 goals 20%, over 3.5 goals 7%.
When and where is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6. Venue: Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Schalke 04: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). FSV Mainz 05: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for FC Schalke 04, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3 draws. The most recent ended FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04 (May 5, 2023).
How is the FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.25 for FC Schalke 04, 1.29 for FSV Mainz 05) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Schalke 04 predictions
- All FSV Mainz 05 predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology