Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 6: the Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time). With a 92% win probability, Borussia Dortmund go in as strong favourites against Union Berlin (2%), with the draw rated at 6%. The most likely correct score is 0-3 (10.3%), ahead of 0-4 (10.3%) and 0-5 (8.2%).
Union Berlin have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 17. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 15 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Borussia Dortmund. On average Union Berlin score 1.00 and concede 3.40 goals per game; Borussia Dortmund score 3.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Union Berlin sit 17th with 1 points from 4 games, Borussia Dortmund 1st with 12 points from 4. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Union Berlin have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.42 for Borussia Dortmund.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union Berlin, 4 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund (Jan 24, 2026). Union Berlin out or doubtful: M. Friedrich, A. Markgraf, O. Burke (doubtful), A. Ilic (doubtful), J. Juranovic (doubtful) and S. Nsoki (doubtful). Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, C. Chukwuemeka (doubtful), J. Lerma (doubtful), F. Mane (doubtful), J. Ryerson (doubtful) and N. Schlotterbeck (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Union Berlin or draw" stands at 8%, "Borussia Dortmund or draw" at 98% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Borussia Dortmund are tipped by our AI model in this Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund (92%). On recent form, Union Berlin have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Borussia Dortmund are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (10.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund | 10.3% |
| Union Berlin 0-4 Borussia Dortmund | 10.3% |
| Union Berlin 0-5 Borussia Dortmund | 8.2% |
| Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | 7.7% |
| Union Berlin 1-3 Borussia Dortmund | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.64 goals in total (0.64 for Union Berlin, 4.00 for Borussia Dortmund): over 2.5 goals has a 84% probability and both teams to score 46%. Everything points to an open game. Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Borussia Dortmund in 53%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin expected goals | 0.64 |
| Borussia Dortmund expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 68% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 2% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 53% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union Berlin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | HNK Rijeka · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 0-7 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 3-3 | D |
Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Villarreal · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | HEBC · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 17 | 1 | 4 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 12 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Union Berlin
- M. Friedrich (out)
- A. Markgraf (out)
- O. Burke (doubtful)
- A. Ilic (doubtful)
- J. Juranovic (doubtful)
- S. Nsoki (doubtful)
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Can (out)
- G. Konstantelias (out)
- C. Chukwuemeka (doubtful)
- J. Lerma (doubtful)
- F. Mane (doubtful)
- J. Ryerson (doubtful)
- N. Schlotterbeck (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Union Berlin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Latte Lath4/5
- F. Uduokhai4/5
- M. Aebischer4/5
- R. Khedira4/5
- T. Rothe4/5
- A. Kemlein3/5
- J. Juranovic3/5
- Jeong Woo-Yeong3/5
- L. Burcu3/5
- L. Querfeld3/5
- M. Ljubicic3/5
Borussia Dortmund
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Svensson5/5
- J. Ryerson5/5
- W. Anton5/5
- F. Nmecha4/5
- G. Kobel4/5
- J. Veerman4/5
- S. Guirassy4/5
- J. Gadou3/5
- M. Beier3/5
- E. Nwaneri2/5
- F. Mane2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Hamburger SV – VfB StuttgartOct 17, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05Oct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07Oct 17, 2026
- Bayern München – RB LeipzigOct 17, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgOct 18, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction?
Our AI gives Union Berlin a 2% chance of winning, the draw 6% and Borussia Dortmund 92%. Borussia Dortmund are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
0-3 (10.3%), followed by 0-4 (10.3%), 0-5 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 1-3 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund score is 46%. Union Berlin have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Borussia Dortmund 53%.
How many goals should we expect in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 4.64 goals (0.64 for Union Berlin, 4.00 for Borussia Dortmund). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 68%.
When and where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 17 conceded). Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union Berlin, 4 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund (Jan 24, 2026).
How is the Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.64 for Union Berlin, 4.00 for Borussia Dortmund) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union Berlin predictions
- All Borussia Dortmund predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology