Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bundesliga, matchday 6: the Bayern München vs RB Leipzig match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time). Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Our model makes Bayern München clear favourites: a 72% chance of winning, against 13% for the draw and 15% for RB Leipzig. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.5%), followed by 4-1 (5.8%) and 3-2 (5.7%).
Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than RB Leipzig. On average Bayern München score 3.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Bayern München sit 2nd with 10 points from 4 games, RB Leipzig 9th with 6 points from 4. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bayern München have averaged 2.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.63 for RB Leipzig.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Bayern München, 0 for RB Leipzig and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig (Feb 11, 2026). Bayern München out or doubtful: T. Buchmann and J. Musiala. RB Leipzig: M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo, C. Baumgartner (doubtful), B. Gruda (doubtful) and R. Reitz (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bayern München or draw" stands at 85%, "RB Leipzig or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Bayern München are favourites for this Bayern München v RB Leipzig, with a 72% win probability from our model. In the table, Bayern München (2nd, 10 pts) host RB Leipzig (9th, 6 pts). One to watch: RB Leipzig will be without M. Guiu and A. Ouedraogo.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bayern München – RB Leipzig. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayern München 3-1 RB Leipzig | 6.5% |
| Bayern München 4-1 RB Leipzig | 5.8% |
| Bayern München 3-2 RB Leipzig | 5.7% |
| Bayern München 2-1 RB Leipzig | 5.4% |
| Bayern München 4-2 RB Leipzig | 5.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.59 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.74 for RB Leipzig, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 90% and "both teams to score" at 80%. Goals look likely in this one. Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, RB Leipzig in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bayern München expected goals | 3.59 |
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 18% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal | 4-1 | W |
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 2 | 10 | 4 |
| RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig | DFB Pokal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RB Leipzig 1-5 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Bayern München 6-0 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| May 3, 2025 | RB Leipzig 3-3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
- J. Musiala (out)
RB Leipzig
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- C. Baumgartner (doubtful)
- B. Gruda (doubtful)
- R. Reitz (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Upamecano4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- C. Nkunku3/5
- N. Seiwald3/5
- W. Orban3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Hamburger SV – VfB StuttgartOct 17, 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia DortmundOct 17, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05Oct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07Oct 17, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgOct 18, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Our AI gives Bayern München a 72% chance of winning, the draw 13% and RB Leipzig 15%. Bayern München are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
3-1 (6.5%), followed by 4-1 (5.8%), 3-2 (5.7%), 2-1 (5.4%) and 4-2 (5.1%).
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The probability that both Bayern München and RB Leipzig score is 80%. Bayern München have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Leipzig 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 5.33 goals (3.59 for Bayern München, 1.74 for RB Leipzig). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 90%, over 3.5 goals 78%.
When and where is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.
What form are Bayern München and RB Leipzig in?
Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 2 conceded). RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and RB Leipzig?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Bayern München, 0 for RB Leipzig and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig (Feb 11, 2026).
How is the Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.59 for Bayern München, 1.74 for RB Leipzig) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bayern München predictions
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology