Bundesliga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Hamburger SV take on VfB Stuttgart on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), a Bundesliga, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Hamburger SV 36%, VfB Stuttgart 34% and the draw 30%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.4%), ahead of 1-0 (12.7%) and 0-1 (12.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with VfB Stuttgart. On average Hamburger SV score 0.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; VfB Stuttgart score 2.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Hamburger SV sit 16th with 3 points from 4 games, VfB Stuttgart 15th with 3 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hamburger SV, 4 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV (Apr 12, 2026). Hamburger SV out or doubtful: P. Daka, A. Gronbaek, M. Vuskovic, T. Moffi (doubtful) and A. Rossing-Lelesiit (doubtful). VfB Stuttgart: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl (doubtful), L. Jaquez (doubtful), N. Nartey (doubtful), T. Tomas (doubtful) and D. Zagadou (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Hamburger SV or draw" stands at 66%, "VfB Stuttgart or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 30%). On recent form, Hamburger SV have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: VfB Stuttgart will be without A. Al Dakhil and J. Diehl.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV 1-1 VfB Stuttgart | 13.4% |
| Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart | 12.7% |
| Hamburger SV 0-1 VfB Stuttgart | 12.2% |
| Hamburger SV 0-0 VfB Stuttgart | 11.5% |
| Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.16 goals in total (1.10 for Hamburger SV, 1.06 for VfB Stuttgart): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 44%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, VfB Stuttgart in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV expected goals | 1.10 |
| VfB Stuttgart expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 35% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Hamburger SV
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | FC Copenhagen · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Club Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Viking · UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 16 | 3 | 4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 15 | 3 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| Jun 5, 2023 | Hamburger SV 1-3 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| Jun 1, 2023 | VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| Aug 26, 2020 | VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Hamburger SV | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Hamburger SV
- P. Daka (out)
- A. Gronbaek (out)
- M. Vuskovic (out)
- T. Moffi (doubtful)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit (doubtful)
VfB Stuttgart
- A. Al Dakhil (out)
- J. Diehl (doubtful)
- L. Jaquez (doubtful)
- N. Nartey (doubtful)
- T. Tomas (doubtful)
- D. Zagadou (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Hamburger SV
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Heuer Fernandes5/5
- J. Torunarigha5/5
- N. Remberg5/5
- A. Gronbaek4/5
- A. S. Lokonga4/5
- N. Capaldo4/5
- D. Wolfe3/5
- M. Adeline3/5
- S. Bornauw3/5
- Z. El Ouahdi3/5
- B. Jatta2/5
VfB Stuttgart
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stiller4/4
- F. Bredlow4/4
- F. Jeltsch4/4
- G. Promel4/4
- M. Mittelstadt4/4
- C. Fuhrich3/4
- D. Undav3/4
- E. Demirovic3/4
- J. Chabot3/4
- B. El Khannouss2/4
- J. Leweling2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC KölnOct 16, 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia DortmundOct 17, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05Oct 17, 2026
- SV Elversberg – FC AugsburgOct 17, 2026
- Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07Oct 17, 2026
- Bayern München – RB LeipzigOct 17, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – SC FreiburgOct 18, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1899 HoffenheimOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction?
Our AI gives Hamburger SV a 36% chance of winning, the draw 30% and VfB Stuttgart 34%. Hamburger SV are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
1-1 (13.4%), followed by 1-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
The probability that both Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart score is 44%. Hamburger SV have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, VfB Stuttgart 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model expects 2.16 goals (1.10 for Hamburger SV, 1.06 for VfB Stuttgart). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 6. Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hamburger SV: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 13 conceded). VfB Stuttgart: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hamburger SV, 4 for VfB Stuttgart and 0 draws. The most recent ended VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV (Apr 12, 2026).
How is the Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.10 for Hamburger SV, 1.06 for VfB Stuttgart) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Hamburger SV predictions
- All VfB Stuttgart predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology