UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Aarhus vs Lech Poznan: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aarhus (46%), while victory for Lech Poznan was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Aarhus vs Lech Poznan was played on Tuesday, July 21, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Cepheus Park Randers, Randers. Before kick-off, our model gave Aarhus a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lech Poznan 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aarhus have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Aarhus score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Lech Poznan score 1.80 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Aarhus and Lech Poznan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Aarhus or draw" stands at 75%, "Lech Poznan or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 71%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aarhus – Lech Poznan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aarhus 1-1 Lech Poznan | 12.0% |
| Aarhus 1-0 Lech Poznan | 11.3% |
| Aarhus 2-1 Lech Poznan | 9.4% |
| Aarhus 2-0 Lech Poznan | 8.9% |
| Aarhus 0-1 Lech Poznan | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.58 for Aarhus, 1.06 for Lech Poznan): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Aarhus keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Lech Poznan in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aarhus expected goals | 1.58 |
| Lech Poznan expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Aarhus clean sheet | 35% |
| Lech Poznan clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Aarhus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Motherwell · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Viborg · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Feb 1, 2026 | FC Copenhagen · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Jan 26, 2026 | IF Elfsborg · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Lech Poznan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Podbrezová · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Conference League | 1-3 | L |
| Feb 26, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 19, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Conference League | 2-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Aarhus and Lech Poznan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Aarhus
No absences reported.
Lech Poznan
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Saburtalo 0-2 Slovan BratislavaJul 21, 2026
- Sabah FA 1-0 KuPSJul 21, 2026
- Mjallby AIF 3-0 Lincoln Red Imps FCJul 21, 2026
- Ararat-Armenia 2-0 Shamrock RoversJul 21, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 1-0 Gornik ZabrzeJul 21, 2026
- FC Thun 1-1 Dinamo ZagrebJul 21, 2026
- Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of MidlothianJul 21, 2026
- KI Klaksvik 0-0 Kauno ŽalgirisJul 21, 2026
- Larne 0-4 FK Crvena ZvezdaJul 21, 2026
- Vikingur Reykjavik 2-1 Hapoel Beer ShevaJul 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aarhus vs Lech Poznan prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aarhus a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lech Poznan 25%. Aarhus are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?
The probability that both Aarhus and Lech Poznan score is 52%. Aarhus have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lech Poznan 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for Aarhus, 1.06 for Lech Poznan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Aarhus vs Lech Poznan played?
Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Cepheus Park Randers, Randers.
What form are Aarhus and Lech Poznan in?
Aarhus: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Lech Poznan: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Aarhus vs Lech Poznan result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aarhus (46%), while victory for Lech Poznan was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Aarhus vs Lech Poznan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Aarhus, 1.06 for Lech Poznan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aarhus predictions
- All Lech Poznan predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology