UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of Midlothian. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sturm Graz at 54%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian met on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Merkur Arena, Graz. Before kick-off, our model gave Sturm Graz a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Heart Of Midlothian 21%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Heart Of Midlothian have won just one of their last 2 matches (0 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 3. On average Sturm Graz score 2.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Heart Of Midlothian score 1.50 and concede 1.50.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sturm Graz or draw" stands at 79%, "Heart Of Midlothian or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sturm Graz – Heart Of Midlothian. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | 11.7% |
| Sturm Graz 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian | 11.5% |
| Sturm Graz 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian | 9.6% |
| Sturm Graz 2-0 Heart Of Midlothian | 9.4% |
| Sturm Graz 0-1 Heart Of Midlothian | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.02 for Heart Of Midlothian, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Heart Of Midlothian in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz expected goals | 1.64 |
| Heart Of Midlothian expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 36% |
| Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Sturm Graz
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Kalsdorf · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | FK Košice · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 30, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies | 2-6 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Mura · Club Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | First Vienna · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Heart Of Midlothian
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Livingston · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sturm Graz
No absences reported.
Heart Of Midlothian
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Saburtalo 0-2 Slovan BratislavaJul 21, 2026
- Sabah FA 1-0 KuPSJul 21, 2026
- Mjallby AIF 3-0 Lincoln Red Imps FCJul 21, 2026
- Ararat-Armenia 2-0 Shamrock RoversJul 21, 2026
- Aarhus 1-4 Lech PoznanJul 21, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 1-0 Gornik ZabrzeJul 21, 2026
- FC Thun 1-1 Dinamo ZagrebJul 21, 2026
- KI Klaksvik 0-0 Kauno ŽalgirisJul 21, 2026
- Larne 0-4 FK Crvena ZvezdaJul 21, 2026
- Vikingur Reykjavik 2-1 Hapoel Beer ShevaJul 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sturm Graz a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Heart Of Midlothian 21%. Sturm Graz are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The probability that both Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian score is 52%. Sturm Graz have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Heart Of Midlothian 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.64 for Sturm Graz, 1.02 for Heart Of Midlothian). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian played?
Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Merkur Arena, Graz.
What form are Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian in?
Sturm Graz: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 10 conceded). Heart Of Midlothian: 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 2 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart Of Midlothian. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sturm Graz at 54%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Sturm Graz, 1.02 for Heart Of Midlothian) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sturm Graz predictions
- All Heart Of Midlothian predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology