UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, December 8, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Aston Villa take on Paris Saint Germain on Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites: a 67% chance of winning, against 16% for the draw and 17% for Paris Saint Germain. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (5.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Aston Villa score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Aston Villa sit 9th with 3 points from 1 games, Paris Saint Germain 1st with 3 points from 1. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.64 for Paris Saint Germain.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Aston Villa (Aug 12, 2026). Aston Villa out or doubtful: Alysson, M. Bizot, L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen, B. Madjo, A. Onana and P. Torres. Paris Saint Germain: A. Hakimi and Q. Ndjantou. In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 83%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Aston Villa are tipped by our AI model in this Aston Villa v Paris Saint Germain (67%). In the table, Aston Villa (9th, 3 pts) host Paris Saint Germain (1st, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Paris Saint Germain. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 2-1 Paris Saint Germain | 7.9% |
| Aston Villa 3-1 Paris Saint Germain | 7.6% |
| Aston Villa 2-2 Paris Saint Germain | 5.7% |
| Aston Villa 3-2 Paris Saint Germain | 5.5% |
| Aston Villa 4-1 Paris Saint Germain | 5.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.89 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.46 for Paris Saint Germain, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 2.89 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 23% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Super Cup |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Aston Villa 3-2 Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- Alysson (out)
- M. Bizot (out)
- L. Goretzka (out)
- I. Maatsen (out)
- B. Madjo (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- P. Torres (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Hakimi (out)
- Q. Ndjantou (out)
Most regular starters
Aston Villa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Wan-Bissaka4/5
- B. Kamara4/5
- N. Jackson4/5
- Z. Suzuki4/5
- E. Buendia3/5
- G. Hemmings3/5
- I. Maatsen3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
- R. Barkley3/5
- T. Mings3/5
- V. Lindelof3/5
Paris Saint Germain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- Marquinhos4/5
- Achraf Hakimi3/5
- Fabián Ruiz3/5
- João Neves3/5
- Matvey Safonov3/5
- Warren Zaïre-Emery3/5
- Willian Pacho3/5
- Désiré Doué2/5
- Ferran Torres2/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Our AI gives Aston Villa a 67% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Paris Saint Germain 17%. Aston Villa are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
2-1 (7.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (5.7%), 3-2 (5.5%) and 4-1 (5.5%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Paris Saint Germain score is 73%. Aston Villa have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 4.35 goals (2.89 for Aston Villa, 1.46 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Paris Saint Germain in?
Aston Villa: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Paris Saint Germain?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Aston Villa, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Aston Villa (Aug 12, 2026).
How is the Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.89 for Aston Villa, 1.46 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology