UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, December 9, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Arsenal take on Real Madrid on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. It is a tight call: 43% for Arsenal, 19% for the draw and 38% for Real Madrid. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (7.0%), followed by 2-1 (6.3%) and 1-2 (6.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Arsenal sit 15th with 3 points from 1 games, Real Madrid 14th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 2.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.58 for Real Madrid.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 1-2 Arsenal (Apr 16, 2025). Arsenal out or doubtful: C. Mosquera, W. Saliba and B. White. Real Madrid: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 62%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Arsenal host Real Madrid in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (19%). In the table, Arsenal (15th, 3 pts) host Real Madrid (14th, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arsenal – Real Madrid. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 30% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 2-2 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
| Arsenal 2-1 Real Madrid | 6.3% |
| Arsenal 1-2 Real Madrid | 6.0% |
| Arsenal 3-2 Real Madrid | 5.5% |
| Arsenal 1-1 Real Madrid | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.36 expected goals for Arsenal and 2.24 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 84% and "both teams to score" at 81%. Goals look likely in this one. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal expected goals | 2.36 |
| Real Madrid expected goals | 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 11% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 24, 2019 | Real Madrid 2-2 Arsenal | International Champions Cup |
Out and doubtful
Arsenal
- C. Mosquera (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- B. White (out)
Real Madrid
- Eder Militao (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
Most regular starters
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- C. Tzolis3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives Arsenal a 43% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Real Madrid 38%. Arsenal are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
2-2 (7.0%), followed by 2-1 (6.3%), 1-2 (6.0%), 3-2 (5.5%) and 1-1 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
The probability that both Arsenal and Real Madrid score is 81%. Arsenal have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
The model expects 4.60 goals (2.36 for Arsenal, 2.24 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 67%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.
What form are Arsenal and Real Madrid in?
Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Real Madrid?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 1-2 Arsenal (Apr 16, 2025).
How is the Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.36 for Arsenal, 2.24 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arsenal predictions
- All Real Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
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