UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, December 8, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Manchester United vs RB Leipzig prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Manchester United vs RB Leipzig kicks off on Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Manchester United start as favourites with a 55% chance of victory; RB Leipzig are given 24% and the draw 21%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.0%).
Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Manchester United sit 4th with 3 points from 1 games, RB Leipzig 32nd with 0 points from 1. 28 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 1.10 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.63 for RB Leipzig.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended RB Leipzig 3-2 Manchester United (Dec 8, 2020). Manchester United out or doubtful: A. Diallo, T. Heaton, B. Sesko, M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt. RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 76%, "RB Leipzig or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Manchester United are favourites for this Manchester United v RB Leipzig, with a 55% win probability from our model. On recent form, Manchester United have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Manchester United will be without A. Diallo and T. Heaton.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – RB Leipzig. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 2-1 RB Leipzig | 9.4% |
| Manchester United 1-1 RB Leipzig | 8.8% |
| Manchester United 2-0 RB Leipzig | 7.0% |
| Manchester United 3-1 RB Leipzig | 6.7% |
| Manchester United 1-0 RB Leipzig | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.14 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.35 for RB Leipzig, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 68% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, RB Leipzig in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 2.14 |
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 26% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2020 | RB Leipzig 3-2 Manchester United | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 28, 2020 | Manchester United 5-0 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- B. Sesko (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
Most regular starters
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Y. Tielemans5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- K. Mainoo4/5
- M. Rashford4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- B. Šeško2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- D. Dalot2/5
- Diogo Dalot2/5
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- C. Nkunku3/5
- N. Seiwald3/5
- W. Orban3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs RB Leipzig prediction?
Our AI gives Manchester United a 55% chance of winning, the draw 21% and RB Leipzig 24%. Manchester United are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs RB Leipzig?
2-1 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.7%) and 1-0 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs RB Leipzig?
The probability that both Manchester United and RB Leipzig score is 65%. Manchester United have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Leipzig 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 3.49 goals (2.14 for Manchester United, 1.35 for RB Leipzig). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Manchester United vs RB Leipzig played?
Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and RB Leipzig in?
Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and RB Leipzig?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. The most recent ended RB Leipzig 3-2 Manchester United (Dec 8, 2020).
How is the Manchester United vs RB Leipzig prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.14 for Manchester United, 1.35 for RB Leipzig) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology