UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, December 9, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid kicks off on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. With a 74% win probability, PSV Eindhoven go in as strong favourites against Atletico Madrid (12%), with the draw rated at 14%. The most likely correct score is 3-1 (7.9%), ahead of 2-1 (7.5%) and 4-1 (6.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average PSV Eindhoven score 3.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, PSV Eindhoven sit 19th with 1 points from 1 games, Atletico Madrid 26th with 0 points from 1. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, PSV Eindhoven have averaged 2.59 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended PSV Eindhoven 2-3 Atletico Madrid (Dec 9, 2025). PSV Eindhoven out or doubtful: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea, J. Schouten and K. Sildillia. Atletico Madrid: P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. In double chance terms, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" stands at 88%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : PSV Eindhoven are favourites for this PSV Eindhoven v Atletico Madrid, with a 74% win probability from our model. In the table, PSV Eindhoven (19th, 1 pts) host Atletico Madrid (26th, 0 pts). One to watch: PSV Eindhoven will be without S. Lammers and A. Nagalo.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as PSV Eindhoven – Atletico Madrid. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.9% |
| PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Atletico Madrid | 7.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Atletico Madrid | 6.3% |
| PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Atletico Madrid | 6.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Atletico Madrid | 5.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.46 goals in total (3.17 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.29 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 82% probability and both teams to score 69%. Everything points to an open game. PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 3.17 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 28% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| Atletico Madrid | 26 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-3 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
Most regular starters
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- R. Pepi4/5
- R. van Bommel4/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- Mauro Junior3/5
- P. Wanner3/5
- I. Perisic2/5
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Aston Villa – Paris Saint GermainDec 8, 2026
- Manchester United – RB LeipzigDec 8, 2026
- AS Roma – Sporting CPDec 8, 2026
- Real Betis – ComoDec 9, 2026
- Slovan Bratislava – Shakhtar DonetskDec 9, 2026
- VfB Stuttgart – LilleDec 9, 2026
- Arsenal – Real MadridDec 9, 2026
- Liverpool – FC PortoDec 9, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund – InterDec 9, 2026
- Lens – Bodo/GlimtDec 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives PSV Eindhoven a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Atletico Madrid 12%. PSV Eindhoven are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
3-1 (7.9%), followed by 2-1 (7.5%), 4-1 (6.3%), 3-0 (6.1%) and 2-0 (5.8%).
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid score is 69%. PSV Eindhoven have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 4%.
How many goals should we expect in PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 4.46 goals (3.17 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.29 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 82%, over 3.5 goals 65%.
When and where is PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid played?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid in?
PSV Eindhoven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended PSV Eindhoven 2-3 Atletico Madrid (Dec 9, 2025).
How is the PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.17 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.29 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology