UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, December 9, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Liverpool vs FC Porto prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: Liverpool vs FC Porto kicks off on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Our model makes Liverpool clear favourites: a 80% chance of winning, against 13% for the draw and 7% for FC Porto. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 3-0 (10.9%) and 1-0 (8.6%).
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 8 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Liverpool score 1.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; FC Porto score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Liverpool sit 13th with 3 points from 1 games, FC Porto 31st with 0 points from 1. 18 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Liverpool have averaged 1.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.49 for FC Porto.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liverpool and FC Porto: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Liverpool out or doubtful: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa, H. Ekitike and G. Leoni. In double chance terms, "Liverpool or draw" stands at 93%, "FC Porto or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Our model backs Liverpool to edge FC Porto (80% probability). In the table, Liverpool (13th, 3 pts) host FC Porto (31st, 0 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liverpool – FC Porto. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 2-0 FC Porto | 11.9% |
| Liverpool 3-0 FC Porto | 10.9% |
| Liverpool 1-0 FC Porto | 8.6% |
| Liverpool 2-1 FC Porto | 8.4% |
| Liverpool 3-1 FC Porto | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.76 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.71 for FC Porto, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Goals look likely in this one. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, FC Porto in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool expected goals | 2.76 |
| FC Porto expected goals | 0.71 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 49% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liverpool
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 13 | 3 | 1 |
| FC Porto | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Liverpool and FC Porto: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Liverpool
- C. Bradley (out)
- F. Chiesa (out)
- H. Ekitike (out)
- G. Leoni (out)
FC Porto
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Liverpool
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak4/5
- A. Mac Allister4/5
- D. Szoboszlai4/5
- F. Wirtz4/5
- J. Jacquet4/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- V. van Dijk4/5
- Alisson3/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- C. Gakpo3/5
- R. Araujo3/5
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Kiwior5/5
- P. Rosario5/5
- A. Costa4/5
- Andre Silva4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- G. Veiga4/5
- J. Bednarek4/5
- Pepê4/5
- William Gomes4/5
- F. Moura2/5
- V. Froholdt2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Liverpool vs FC Porto prediction?
Our AI gives Liverpool a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and FC Porto 7%. Liverpool are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool vs FC Porto?
2-0 (11.9%), followed by 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs FC Porto?
The probability that both Liverpool and FC Porto score is 48%. Liverpool have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Porto 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Liverpool vs FC Porto?
The model expects 3.47 goals (2.76 for Liverpool, 0.71 for FC Porto). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Liverpool vs FC Porto played?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool.
What form are Liverpool and FC Porto in?
Liverpool: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded). FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Liverpool vs FC Porto prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.76 for Liverpool, 0.71 for FC Porto) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liverpool predictions
- All FC Porto predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology