UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Paris Saint Germain take on AS Roma on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Our model makes Paris Saint Germain clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 16% for the draw and 18% for AS Roma. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.1%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (5.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; AS Roma score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Paris Saint Germain sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, AS Roma 17th with 1 points from 1. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 1.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.46 for AS Roma.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for AS Roma and 1 draw. The most recent ended AS Roma 1-1 Paris Saint Germain (Jul 20, 2017). Paris Saint Germain out or doubtful: A. Hakimi and Q. Ndjantou. AS Roma: M. Bah. In double chance terms, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" stands at 82%, "AS Roma or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Paris Saint Germain are tipped by our AI model in this Paris Saint Germain v AS Roma (66%). In the table, Paris Saint Germain (1st, 3 pts) host AS Roma (17th, 1 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paris Saint Germain – AS Roma. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain 2-1 AS Roma | 8.1% |
| Paris Saint Germain 3-1 AS Roma | 7.6% |
| Paris Saint Germain 2-2 AS Roma | 5.8% |
| Paris Saint Germain 1-1 AS Roma | 5.8% |
| Paris Saint Germain 2-0 AS Roma | 5.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.81 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.44 for AS Roma, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 80% and "both teams to score" at 72%. Goals look likely in this one. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, AS Roma in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 2.81 |
| AS Roma expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 24% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| AS Roma | 17 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2017 | AS Roma 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | International Champions Cup |
Out and doubtful
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Hakimi (out)
- Q. Ndjantou (out)
AS Roma
- M. Bah (out)
Most regular starters
Paris Saint Germain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- Marquinhos4/5
- Achraf Hakimi3/5
- Fabián Ruiz3/5
- João Neves3/5
- Matvey Safonov3/5
- Warren Zaïre-Emery3/5
- Willian Pacho3/5
- Désiré Doué2/5
- Ferran Torres2/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2/5
AS Roma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cristante4/5
- D. Malen4/5
- G. Mancini4/5
- M. Svilar4/5
- P. Dybala4/5
- E. Lulli3/5
- M. Hermoso3/5
- E. Ndicka2/5
- M. Kone2/5
- M. Soule2/5
- Wesley2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma prediction?
Our AI gives Paris Saint Germain a 66% chance of winning, the draw 16% and AS Roma 18%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma?
2-1 (8.1%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (5.8%), 1-1 (5.8%) and 2-0 (5.6%).
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma?
The probability that both Paris Saint Germain and AS Roma score is 72%. Paris Saint Germain have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AS Roma 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma?
The model expects 4.25 goals (2.81 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.44 for AS Roma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma played?
Wednesday, November 25, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and AS Roma in?
Paris Saint Germain: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). AS Roma: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and AS Roma?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for AS Roma and 1 draw. The most recent ended AS Roma 1-1 Paris Saint Germain (Jul 20, 2017).
How is the Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.81 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.44 for AS Roma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- All AS Roma predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology