Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Birmingham vs Swansea: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Birmingham 2-1 Swansea. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Birmingham was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.
Match analysis
Birmingham vs Swansea was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Championship, matchday 15). Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Birmingham a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Swansea 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.7%), ahead of 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-2 (6.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Birmingham have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Swansea have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Birmingham. On average Birmingham score 2.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Swansea score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Birmingham sit 3rd with 26 points from 14 games, Swansea 5th with 26 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Birmingham have averaged 1.61 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.69 for Swansea.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Birmingham, 0 for Swansea and 3 draws. The most recent ended Swansea 1-1 Birmingham (Jan 17, 2026). Birmingham out or doubtful: M. Leonard, K. Lund, Paik Seung-Ho, J. Beadle (doubtful) and D. Fry (doubtful). Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio (doubtful) and M. Stamenic (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Birmingham or draw" stands at 71%, "Swansea or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Birmingham are tipped by our AI model in this Birmingham v Swansea (49%). In the table, Birmingham (3rd, 26 pts) host Swansea (5th, 26 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Birmingham – Swansea. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Birmingham 1-1 Swansea | 9.7% |
| Birmingham 2-1 Swansea | 9.3% |
| Birmingham 1-2 Swansea | 6.9% |
| Birmingham 1-0 Swansea | 6.8% |
| Birmingham 2-2 Swansea | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.33 goals in total (1.91 for Birmingham, 1.42 for Swansea): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Swansea in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Birmingham expected goals | 1.91 |
| Swansea expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 24% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 4-0 | W |
Swansea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Blackburn · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 0-5 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 3 | 26 | 14 |
| Swansea | 5 | 26 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Birmingham 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Birmingham 2-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Swansea 3-4 Birmingham | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Birmingham
- M. Leonard (out)
- K. Lund (out)
- Paik Seung-Ho (out)
- J. Beadle (doubtful)
- D. Fry (doubtful)
Swansea
- C. Burgess (out)
- Ronald (out)
- M. K. Yeo (out)
- S. Eustaquio (doubtful)
- M. Stamenic (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Birmingham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cochrane5/5
- C. Klarer5/5
- J. Stansfield5/5
- L. Millar5/5
- P. Neumann5/5
- T. Iwata5/5
- J. Beadle4/5
- P. Roberts4/5
- A. Priske3/5
- B. Osayi-Samuel3/5
- J. E. Solis Romero3/5
Swansea
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Tymon5/5
- L. Vigouroux5/5
- B. Cabango4/5
- F. Lissah4/5
- J. Fulton4/5
- S. Welsh4/5
- A. Idah3/5
- J. Opoku3/5
- M. Stamenic3/5
- M. Widell3/5
- E. Just2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke CityNov 7, 2026
- Bristol City 0-5 NorwichNov 7, 2026
- Wrexham 1-1 WolvesNov 7, 2026
- Watford 0-0 MiddlesbroughNov 7, 2026
- Cardiff 5-4 BurnleyNov 7, 2026
- West Brom 3-0 MillwallNov 7, 2026
- Preston 1-0 SouthamptonNov 7, 2026
- Charlton 2-1 Sheffield UtdNov 7, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 West HamNov 7, 2026
- QPR 2-1 LincolnNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Birmingham vs Swansea prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Birmingham a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Swansea 29%. Birmingham are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Birmingham vs Swansea?
1-1 (9.7%), followed by 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%), 1-0 (6.8%) and 2-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The probability that both Birmingham and Swansea score is 65%. Birmingham have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Swansea 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The model expects 3.33 goals (1.91 for Birmingham, 1.42 for Swansea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.
When and where is Birmingham vs Swansea played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 15. Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham.
What form are Birmingham and Swansea in?
Birmingham: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded). Swansea: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Swansea?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Birmingham, 0 for Swansea and 3 draws. The most recent ended Swansea 1-1 Birmingham (Jan 17, 2026).
What was the Birmingham vs Swansea result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Birmingham 2-1 Swansea. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Birmingham was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.
How is the Birmingham vs Swansea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.91 for Birmingham, 1.42 for Swansea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Birmingham predictions
- All Swansea predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology