Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Stoke City at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): missed.
Match analysis
Portsmouth and Stoke City met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Championship, matchday 15 fixture. Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Before kick-off, our model gave Portsmouth a 31% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Stoke City 39%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (12.6%).
Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Stoke City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Portsmouth score 1.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Stoke City score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, Portsmouth sit 10th with 22 points from 14 games, Stoke City 4th with 26 points from 14. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Portsmouth have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for Stoke City.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portsmouth, 1 for Stoke City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth (Apr 25, 2026). Portsmouth out or doubtful: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie and J. Swift. Stoke City: A. Ampah, E. Bocat, L. Cisse, E. Galbraith (suspended), A. Cresswell (doubtful) and S. Gallagher (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Portsmouth or draw" stands at 61%, "Stoke City or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Stoke City are tipped by our AI model in this Portsmouth v Stoke City (39%). In the table, Portsmouth (10th, 22 pts) host Stoke City (4th, 26 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Portsmouth – Stoke City. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke City | 14.1% |
| Portsmouth 1-1 Stoke City | 13.4% |
| Portsmouth 0-0 Stoke City | 12.6% |
| Portsmouth 1-0 Stoke City | 12.0% |
| Portsmouth 0-2 Stoke City | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.95 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.12 for Stoke City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 34% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Stoke City in 39%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth expected goals | 0.95 |
| Stoke City expected goals | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 33% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 39% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Portsmouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Stoke City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Blackburn · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 10 | 22 | 14 |
| Stoke City | 4 | 26 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Portsmouth
- K. Anderson (out)
- B. Arthur (out)
- C. Bishop (out)
- L. Brooke-Smith (out)
- M. Kosznovszky (out)
- C. Ogilvie (out)
- J. Swift (out)
Stoke City
- A. Ampah (out)
- E. Bocat (out)
- L. Cisse (out)
- E. Galbraith (suspended)
- A. Cresswell (doubtful)
- S. Gallagher (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Portsmouth
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Segecic5/5
- I. Mohamed5/5
- M. Dia5/5
- N. Schmid5/5
- R. Poole5/5
- A. Kamara4/5
- J. Meghoma4/5
- M. Pack3/5
- R. Kavuma McQueen3/5
- T. Devlin3/5
- Z. Swanson3/5
Stoke City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Johnson5/5
- B. Wilmot5/5
- J. McGlynn5/5
- L. Graham5/5
- V. Johansson5/5
- E. Galbraith4/5
- J. Devenny4/5
- B. Lawal3/5
- D. Soumare3/5
- L. Bombino3/5
- L. Cisse3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Bristol City 0-5 NorwichNov 7, 2026
- Wrexham 1-1 WolvesNov 7, 2026
- Watford 0-0 MiddlesbroughNov 7, 2026
- Birmingham 2-1 SwanseaNov 7, 2026
- Cardiff 5-4 BurnleyNov 7, 2026
- West Brom 3-0 MillwallNov 7, 2026
- Preston 1-0 SouthamptonNov 7, 2026
- Charlton 2-1 Sheffield UtdNov 7, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 West HamNov 7, 2026
- QPR 2-1 LincolnNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Portsmouth a 31% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Stoke City 39%. Stoke City are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
0-1 (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.0%) and 0-2 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The probability that both Portsmouth and Stoke City score is 41%. Portsmouth have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stoke City 39%.
How many goals should we expect in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The model expects 2.07 goals (0.95 for Portsmouth, 1.12 for Stoke City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 34%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Stoke City played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 15. Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth.
What form are Portsmouth and Stoke City in?
Portsmouth: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded). Stoke City: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Stoke City?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portsmouth, 1 for Stoke City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Portsmouth vs Stoke City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Stoke City at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.5%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): missed.
How is the Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.95 for Portsmouth, 1.12 for Stoke City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Portsmouth predictions
- All Stoke City predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology