Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Cardiff vs Burnley: 5-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cardiff 5-4 Burnley. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cardiff was the model's favourite outcome (74%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
Match analysis
Cardiff vs Burnley was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Championship, matchday 15). Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Before kick-off, our model gave Cardiff a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Burnley 11%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (9.3%), ahead of 2-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cardiff have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Burnley have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Cardiff. On average Cardiff score 2.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Burnley score 1.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Cardiff sit 18th with 15 points from 14 games, Burnley 22nd with 10 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cardiff have averaged 1.94 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Burnley.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cardiff, 0 for Burnley and 0 draws. The most recent ended Burnley 1-2 Cardiff (Sep 23, 2025). Cardiff out or doubtful: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, K. Bielik (doubtful) and C. Robinson (doubtful). Burnley: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, A. Broja, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys and H. Mejbri. In double chance terms, "Cardiff or draw" stands at 89%, "Burnley or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Cardiff are favourites for this Cardiff v Burnley, with a 74% win probability from our model. In the table, Cardiff (18th, 15 pts) host Burnley (22nd, 10 pts). One to watch: Burnley will be without Z. Amdouni and B. Amos.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cardiff – Burnley. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cardiff 2-0 Burnley | 9.3% |
| Cardiff 2-1 Burnley | 9.0% |
| Cardiff 3-0 Burnley | 8.4% |
| Cardiff 3-1 Burnley | 8.1% |
| Cardiff 1-0 Burnley | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.67 goals in total (2.70 for Cardiff, 0.97 for Burnley): over 2.5 goals has a 71% probability and both teams to score 58%. Everything points to an open game. Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Burnley in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cardiff expected goals | 2.70 |
| Burnley expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 38% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cardiff
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 5-1 | W |
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| Burnley | 22 | 10 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Burnley 1-2 Cardiff | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Cardiff
- C. Chambers (out)
- D. Lawlor (out)
- K. Bielik (doubtful)
- C. Robinson (doubtful)
Burnley
- Z. Amdouni (out)
- B. Amos (out)
- A. Barnes (out)
- J. Beyer (out)
- A. Broja (out)
- J. Bruun Larsen (out)
- B. Humphreys (out)
- H. Mejbri (out)
Most regular starters
Cardiff
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Robertson5/5
- J. Bagan5/5
- J. Moylan5/5
- N. Trott5/5
- O. Tanner5/5
- C. Willock4/5
- J. Colwill4/5
- P. Ng4/5
- C. Ashford3/5
- C. Scanlon3/5
- W. Fish3/5
Burnley
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Coudert5/5
- Igor5/5
- J. Laurent5/5
- K. Walker5/5
- L. Ramazani5/5
- Lucas Pires5/5
- R. Hatate5/5
- H. Ekdal4/5
- J. Vardy4/5
- M. Alleyne3/5
- A. Hountondji2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke CityNov 7, 2026
- Bristol City 0-5 NorwichNov 7, 2026
- Wrexham 1-1 WolvesNov 7, 2026
- Watford 0-0 MiddlesbroughNov 7, 2026
- Birmingham 2-1 SwanseaNov 7, 2026
- West Brom 3-0 MillwallNov 7, 2026
- Preston 1-0 SouthamptonNov 7, 2026
- Charlton 2-1 Sheffield UtdNov 7, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 West HamNov 7, 2026
- QPR 2-1 LincolnNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cardiff vs Burnley prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cardiff a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Burnley 11%. Cardiff are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Cardiff vs Burnley?
2-0 (9.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The probability that both Cardiff and Burnley score is 58%. Cardiff have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Burnley 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model expects 3.67 goals (2.70 for Cardiff, 0.97 for Burnley). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Cardiff vs Burnley played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 15. Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in?
Cardiff: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded). Burnley: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cardiff, 0 for Burnley and 0 draws. The most recent ended Burnley 1-2 Cardiff (Sep 23, 2025).
What was the Cardiff vs Burnley result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cardiff 5-4 Burnley. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cardiff was the model's favourite outcome (74%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.
How is the Cardiff vs Burnley prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.70 for Cardiff, 0.97 for Burnley) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cardiff predictions
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