Championship· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Derby vs Bolton: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Derby 3-1 Bolton. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Derby at 36%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Derby and Bolton met on Friday, November 6, 2026, a Championship, matchday 15 fixture. Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Before kick-off, our model gave Derby a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bolton 36%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%) and 0-1 (10.6%).
Derby have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Bolton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Bolton therefore arrive in far better shape than Derby. On average Derby score 0.60 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Bolton score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Derby sit 23rd with 7 points from 14 games, Bolton 17th with 17 points from 14. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Derby have averaged 1.03 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.20 for Bolton.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Derby, 1 for Bolton and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-0 Bolton (Mar 16, 2024). Derby out or doubtful: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and L. Travis. Bolton: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, E. Toal and G. Bazunu (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Derby or draw" stands at 64%, "Bolton or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Derby host Bolton in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (27%). On recent form, Derby are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Bolton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Derby – Bolton. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby 1-1 Bolton | 13.0% |
| Derby 1-0 Bolton | 10.6% |
| Derby 0-1 Bolton | 10.6% |
| Derby 0-0 Bolton | 8.7% |
| Derby 2-1 Bolton | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.22 expected goals for Derby and 1.22 for Bolton, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Derby keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Bolton in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Derby expected goals | 1.22 |
| Bolton expected goals | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Derby clean sheet | 30% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-4 | L |
Bolton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 1-5 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 23 | 7 | 14 |
| Bolton | 17 | 17 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | Derby 1-0 Bolton | League One |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Bolton 2-1 Derby | League One |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Derby 2-1 Bolton | League One |
| Dec 27, 2022 | Bolton 0-0 Derby | League One |
| Apr 13, 2019 | Derby 4-0 Bolton | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- E. Cashin (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- S. Langas (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- C. Taylor (out)
- L. Travis (out)
Bolton
- E. Erhahon (out)
- R. Hardie (out)
- J. McAtee (out)
- J. Nelson (out)
- E. Toal (out)
- G. Bazunu (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Clark5/5
- C. Morris5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- D. Ozoh4/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- R. Hedges4/5
- R. Nyambe4/5
- H. Meister3/5
- J. Ward3/5
- A. Mowatt2/5
- J. Vickers2/5
Bolton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Sheehan5/5
- A. Famewo4/5
- A. Ito4/5
- T. Gale4/5
- E. Toal3/5
- G. Bazunu3/5
- G. Larrazabal3/5
- L. Brunt3/5
- S. Dalby3/5
- X. Simons3/5
- C. Forino-Joseph2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke CityNov 7, 2026
- Bristol City 0-5 NorwichNov 7, 2026
- Wrexham 1-1 WolvesNov 7, 2026
- Watford 0-0 MiddlesbroughNov 7, 2026
- Birmingham 2-1 SwanseaNov 7, 2026
- Cardiff 5-4 BurnleyNov 7, 2026
- West Brom 3-0 MillwallNov 7, 2026
- Preston 1-0 SouthamptonNov 7, 2026
- Charlton 2-1 Sheffield UtdNov 7, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 West HamNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Derby vs Bolton prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Derby a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bolton 36%. Derby are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Derby vs Bolton?
1-1 (13.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
The probability that both Derby and Bolton score is 50%. Derby have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bolton 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Derby vs Bolton?
The model expects 2.44 goals (1.22 for Derby, 1.22 for Bolton). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Derby vs Bolton played?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 15. Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 14 conceded). Bolton: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Derby, 1 for Bolton and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-0 Bolton (Mar 16, 2024).
What was the Derby vs Bolton result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Derby 3-1 Bolton. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Derby at 36%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Derby vs Bolton prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Derby, 1.22 for Bolton) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Derby predictions
- All Bolton predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology