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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

Dinamo MinskDinamo Minsk0 – 1Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Dinamo Minsk (56%), while victory for Neftchi Baku was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora. Before kick-off, our model gave Dinamo Minsk a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Neftchi Baku 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Dinamo Minsk have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Neftchi Baku have won just one of their last 4 matches (0 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Dinamo Minsk therefore arrive in far better shape than Neftchi Baku. On average Dinamo Minsk score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Neftchi Baku score 1.50 and concede 1.75.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Dinamo Minsk, 0 for Neftchi Baku and 0 draws. The most recent ended Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk (Jul 22, 2026). In double chance terms, "Dinamo Minsk or draw" stands at 80%, "Neftchi Baku or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

56%
Dinamo Minsk (Win)
24%
Draw
20%
Neftchi Baku (Win)

Double chance

80%
Dinamo Minsk or draw
44%
Neftchi Baku or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Dinamo Minsk – Neftchi Baku. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Neftchi Baku11.7%
Dinamo Minsk 1-1 Neftchi Baku11.2%
Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Neftchi Baku10.2%
Dinamo Minsk 2-1 Neftchi Baku9.8%
Dinamo Minsk 0-0 Neftchi Baku6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.74 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.96 for Neftchi Baku, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Dinamo Minsk keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Neftchi Baku in 18%.

Probability
Dinamo Minsk expected goals1.74
Neftchi Baku expected goals0.96
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Dinamo Minsk clean sheet38%
Neftchi Baku clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Dinamo Minsk

DateOpponentScore
Jul 22, 2026Neftchi Baku · UEFA Conference League4-2W
Jul 16, 2026Sileks · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 9, 2026Sileks · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Mar 28, 2026FC Minsk · Club Friendlies1-0W
Feb 28, 2026Baranovichi · Club Friendlies3-2W

Neftchi Baku

DateOpponentScore
Jul 22, 2026Dinamo Minsk · UEFA Conference League2-4L
Jul 10, 2026Radnicki NIS · Club Friendlies3-0W
Jul 6, 2026FK Partizan · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jul 2, 2026CFR 1907 Cluj · Club Friendlies1-2L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 22, 2026Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Dinamo Minsk

No absences reported.

Neftchi Baku

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Dinamo Minsk a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Neftchi Baku 20%. Dinamo Minsk are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku?

The probability that both Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku score is 51%. Dinamo Minsk have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Neftchi Baku 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku?

The model expects 2.70 goals (1.74 for Dinamo Minsk, 0.96 for Neftchi Baku). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora.

What form are Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku in?

Dinamo Minsk: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Neftchi Baku: 1 win, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 4 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Dinamo Minsk, 0 for Neftchi Baku and 0 draws. The most recent ended Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk (Jul 22, 2026).

What was the Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Dinamo Minsk (56%), while victory for Neftchi Baku was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.74 for Dinamo Minsk, 0.96 for Neftchi Baku) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained