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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 18:30 (UK time)

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca: 2-3 result and AI prediction review

Beitar JerusalemBeitar Jerusalem2 – 3AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca (4-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Beitar Jerusalem (43%), while victory for AEK Larnaca was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

Match analysis

Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Stadionul Ilie Oană, Ploiesti. Before kick-off, our model gave Beitar Jerusalem a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AEK Larnaca 31%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 6. AEK Larnaca have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Beitar Jerusalem therefore arrive in far better shape than AEK Larnaca. On average Beitar Jerusalem score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; AEK Larnaca score 1.00 and concede 1.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Beitar Jerusalem, 0 for AEK Larnaca and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Beitar Jerusalem or draw" stands at 69%, "AEK Larnaca or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

43%
Beitar Jerusalem (Win)
26%
Draw
31%
AEK Larnaca (Win)

Double chance

69%
Beitar Jerusalem or draw
57%
AEK Larnaca or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Beitar Jerusalem 1-1 AEK Larnaca12.4%
Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 AEK Larnaca10.6%
Beitar Jerusalem 2-1 AEK Larnaca8.9%
Beitar Jerusalem 0-1 AEK Larnaca8.7%
Beitar Jerusalem 2-0 AEK Larnaca7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.43 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.17 for AEK Larnaca, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Beitar Jerusalem keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, AEK Larnaca in 24%.

Probability
Beitar Jerusalem expected goals1.43
AEK Larnaca expected goals1.17
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Beitar Jerusalem clean sheet31%
AEK Larnaca clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Beitar Jerusalem

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026AEK Larnaca · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 7, 2026Arda Kardzhali · Club Friendlies0-0D
Jul 3, 2026Botev Vratsa · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 14, 2025Riga · UEFA Conference League3-1W
Aug 7, 2025Riga · UEFA Conference League0-3L

AEK Larnaca

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Beitar Jerusalem · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 10, 2026Ajax · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jul 7, 2026PAOK · Club Friendlies2-3L
Jul 4, 2026Helmond Sport · Club Friendlies2-1W
Mar 19, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League1-2L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar JerusalemUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Beitar Jerusalem

No absences reported.

AEK Larnaca

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Beitar Jerusalem a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AEK Larnaca 31%. Beitar Jerusalem are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

1-1 (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

The probability that both Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca score is 53%. Beitar Jerusalem have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AEK Larnaca 24%.

How many goals should we expect in Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca?

The model expects 2.60 goals (1.43 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.17 for AEK Larnaca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 18:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Stadionul Ilie Oană, Ploiesti.

What form are Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca in?

Beitar Jerusalem: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). AEK Larnaca: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Beitar Jerusalem, 0 for AEK Larnaca and 0 draws. The most recent ended AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca (4-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Beitar Jerusalem (43%), while victory for AEK Larnaca was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.

How is the Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.43 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.17 for AEK Larnaca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained