Skip to content
Elofoot

UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 18:30 (UK time)

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

Derry CityDerry City0 – 1HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for HNK Rijeka at 57%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (15.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.

Match analysis

Derry City and HNK Rijeka met on Thursday, July 30, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Before kick-off, our model gave Derry City a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and HNK Rijeka 57%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.0%), followed by 0-2 (11.9%) and 1-1 (11.6%).

Derry City have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. HNK Rijeka therefore arrive in far better shape than Derry City. On average Derry City score 0.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; HNK Rijeka score 1.80 and concede 0.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derry City, 1 for HNK Rijeka and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Derry City or draw" stands at 43%, "HNK Rijeka or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

18%
Derry City (Win)
25%
Draw
57%
HNK Rijeka (Win)

Double chance

43%
Derry City or draw
82%
HNK Rijeka or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Derry City – HNK Rijeka. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka15.0%
Derry City 0-2 HNK Rijeka11.9%
Derry City 1-1 HNK Rijeka11.6%
Derry City 0-0 HNK Rijeka9.4%
Derry City 1-2 HNK Rijeka9.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.77 expected goals for Derry City and 1.59 for HNK Rijeka, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Derry City keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, HNK Rijeka in 46%.

Probability
Derry City expected goals0.77
HNK Rijeka expected goals1.59
Both teams to score43%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Derry City clean sheet20%
HNK Rijeka clean sheet46%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Derry City

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026HNK Rijeka · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 16, 2026CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League1-2L
Jul 9, 2026CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League2-3L
Jan 23, 2026Polessya · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jan 9, 2026Sligo Rovers · Club Friendlies0-1L

HNK Rijeka

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Derry City · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 3, 2026Radomlje · Club Friendlies2-0W
Jun 30, 2026Brinje-Grosuplje · Club Friendlies3-0W
Jun 27, 2026Bravo · Club Friendlies2-1W
Mar 19, 2026Strasbourg · UEFA Conference League1-1D

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry CityUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Derry City

No absences reported.

HNK Rijeka

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Derry City vs HNK Rijeka prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Derry City a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and HNK Rijeka 57%. HNK Rijeka are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?

0-1 (15.0%), followed by 0-2 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (9.4%) and 1-2 (9.2%).

Will both teams score in Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?

The probability that both Derry City and HNK Rijeka score is 43%. Derry City have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, HNK Rijeka 46%.

How many goals should we expect in Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?

The model expects 2.36 goals (0.77 for Derry City, 1.59 for HNK Rijeka). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.

When and where is Derry City vs HNK Rijeka played?

Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 18:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry.

What form are Derry City and HNK Rijeka in?

Derry City: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded). HNK Rijeka: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and HNK Rijeka?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derry City, 1 for HNK Rijeka and 0 draws. The most recent ended HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the Derry City vs HNK Rijeka result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for HNK Rijeka at 57%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (15.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.

How is the Derry City vs HNK Rijeka prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.77 for Derry City, 1.59 for HNK Rijeka) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained