UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 30, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Vestri vs Rīgas FS: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Vestri 1-1 Rīgas FS. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Vestri (42%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
Match analysis
Vestri vs Rīgas FS was played on Thursday, July 30, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass, Hnifsdalur. Before kick-off, our model gave Vestri a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Rīgas FS 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-0 (10.5%) and 0-1 (8.9%).
Vestri have not won any of their last 3 matches (0 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 10. Rīgas FS are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Rīgas FS. On average Vestri score 0.33 and concede 3.33 goals per game; Rīgas FS score 2.60 and concede 0.40.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vestri, 1 for Rīgas FS and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Vestri or draw" stands at 68%, "Rīgas FS or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Vestri – Rīgas FS. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vestri 1-1 Rīgas FS | 12.5% |
| Vestri 1-0 Rīgas FS | 10.5% |
| Vestri 0-1 Rīgas FS | 8.9% |
| Vestri 2-1 Rīgas FS | 8.7% |
| Vestri 0-0 Rīgas FS | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.59 goals in total (1.40 for Vestri, 1.19 for Rīgas FS): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Vestri keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Rīgas FS in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Vestri expected goals | 1.40 |
| Rīgas FS expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Vestri clean sheet | 30% |
| Rīgas FS clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Vestri
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS · UEFA Conference League | 1-4 | L |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
Rīgas FS
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Vestri · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Glentoran · UEFA Conference League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Glentoran · UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Táborsko · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri | UEFA Conference League |
Out and doubtful
Vestri
No absences reported.
Rīgas FS
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK LarnacaJul 30, 2026
- Valletta FC 0-4 Raków CzęstochowaJul 30, 2026
- Ajax 4-1 VojvodinaJul 30, 2026
- Ballkani 3-2 BohemiansJul 30, 2026
- Shkendija 3-1 BravoJul 30, 2026
- Ludogorets 2-2 Hapoel Tel AvivJul 30, 2026
- FC Sion 4-0 Bate BorisovJul 30, 2026
- UNA Strassen 0-1 FK PartizanJul 30, 2026
- GKS Katowice 3-1 ŽilinaJul 30, 2026
- Zrinjski 2-2 Valur ReykjavikJul 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Vestri vs Rīgas FS prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Vestri a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Rīgas FS 32%. Vestri are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Vestri vs Rīgas FS?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 0-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Vestri vs Rīgas FS?
The probability that both Vestri and Rīgas FS score is 52%. Vestri have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rīgas FS 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Vestri vs Rīgas FS?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.40 for Vestri, 1.19 for Rīgas FS). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Vestri vs Rīgas FS played?
Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass, Hnifsdalur.
What form are Vestri and Rīgas FS in?
Vestri: 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 10 conceded). Rīgas FS: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Vestri and Rīgas FS?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vestri, 1 for Rīgas FS and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri (Jul 23, 2026).
What was the Vestri vs Rīgas FS result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Vestri 1-1 Rīgas FS. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Vestri (42%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
How is the Vestri vs Rīgas FS prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.40 for Vestri, 1.19 for Rīgas FS) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Vestri predictions
- All Rīgas FS predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology