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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 15:30 (UK time)

Dukagjini vs FC Lugano: 1-5 result and AI prediction review

DukagjiniDukagjini1 – 5FC LuganoFC Lugano

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Dukagjini 1-5 FC Lugano. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Lugano at 59%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.

Match analysis

Dukagjini and FC Lugano met on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Kampi Nacional Hajvalia, Hajvalia. Before kick-off, our model gave Dukagjini a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Lugano 59%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 0-2 (12.2%) and 1-1 (11.2%).

Dukagjini have won just one of their last 3 matches (1 draw, 1 defeat), scoring 4 and conceding 4. FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. FC Lugano therefore arrive in far better shape than Dukagjini. On average Dukagjini score 1.33 and concede 1.33 goals per game; FC Lugano score 1.80 and concede 0.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Dukagjini, 1 for FC Lugano and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini (Jul 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Dukagjini or draw" stands at 41%, "FC Lugano or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

17%
Dukagjini (Win)
24%
Draw
59%
FC Lugano (Win)

Double chance

41%
Dukagjini or draw
83%
FC Lugano or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Dukagjini – FC Lugano. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Dukagjini 0-1 FC Lugano14.5%
Dukagjini 0-2 FC Lugano12.2%
Dukagjini 1-1 FC Lugano11.2%
Dukagjini 1-2 FC Lugano9.4%
Dukagjini 0-0 FC Lugano8.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.77 expected goals for Dukagjini and 1.68 for FC Lugano, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Dukagjini keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, FC Lugano in 46%.

Probability
Dukagjini expected goals0.77
FC Lugano expected goals1.68
Both teams to score44%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Dukagjini clean sheet19%
FC Lugano clean sheet46%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Dukagjini

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026FC Lugano · UEFA Conference League0-1L
Jul 4, 2026Lokomotiv Sofia · Club Friendlies3-3D
Jan 26, 2026Veres Rivne · Club Friendlies1-0W

FC Lugano

DateOpponentScore
Jul 23, 2026Dukagjini · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Jul 10, 20261. FC Heidenheim · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jul 7, 2026Memmingen · Club Friendlies4-0W
Jul 4, 2026Rapperswil · Club Friendlies1-1D
Jun 27, 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC · Club Friendlies2-1W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2026FC Lugano 1-0 DukagjiniUEFA Conference League

Out and doubtful

Dukagjini

No absences reported.

FC Lugano

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Dukagjini vs FC Lugano prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Dukagjini a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Lugano 59%. FC Lugano are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-5.

What is the most likely correct score for Dukagjini vs FC Lugano?

0-1 (14.5%), followed by 0-2 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.2%), 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.6%).

Will both teams score in Dukagjini vs FC Lugano?

The probability that both Dukagjini and FC Lugano score is 44%. Dukagjini have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Lugano 46%.

How many goals should we expect in Dukagjini vs FC Lugano?

The model expects 2.45 goals (0.77 for Dukagjini, 1.68 for FC Lugano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.

When and where is Dukagjini vs FC Lugano played?

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Kampi Nacional Hajvalia, Hajvalia.

What form are Dukagjini and FC Lugano in?

Dukagjini: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). FC Lugano: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Dukagjini and FC Lugano?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Dukagjini, 1 for FC Lugano and 0 draws. The most recent ended FC Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini (Jul 23, 2026).

What was the Dukagjini vs FC Lugano result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Dukagjini 1-5 FC Lugano. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Lugano at 59%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.

How is the Dukagjini vs FC Lugano prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.77 for Dukagjini, 1.68 for FC Lugano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained